UFS 08 24 26

The underdogs football show, the underdogs football show Big transfers, big news, every rumor, every move The underdogs football show, the underdogs football show Every league, every goal, every story to be told The underdogs football show, oh, oh, oh, yeah, yeah And two of the three promoted clubs already have wins We've also got Barcelona scoring five Ferran Torres rescuing PSG on his debut Mo Salah scoring twice in Turkey Man City spending an enormous amount of money on an 18-year-old Rodgery replacement Man U trying to rebuild their midfield with Carlos Baleba And one of the more interesting ownership rescues anywhere in English non-league football But let's start with the champions Arsenal opened Friday with a 3-0 win over Coventry City Kai Havertz scored after 15 minutes Bakayo Saka added a second eight minutes later And Ortega finished it shortly after halftime Coventry were playing their first Premier League match in 25 years And Arsenal basically gave them a very clear demonstration Of how difficult this level really is Obviously the result itself isn't particularly surprising But what we liked about Arsenal is how normal it looked There weren't any opening night nervousness issues There wasn't a period where Coventry made the game uncomfortable And Arsenal had to solve it They controlled the match They got ahead early And they never really allowed the possibility of anything strange to happen That is exactly what you want to look like when you're defending a title Winning the Premier League once changes the question You're no longer trying to prove you can get there Now you have to prove that that level is repeatable and consistent And Arsenal did exactly that Lucky Rebel had Arsenal at plus 120 to win the Premier League Coming into the weekend with Man City plus 375 Liverpool plus 600 Chelsea plus 800 And Man U plus 900 After one weekend I am certainly not moving away from Arsenal here Man City got a win too Though their route was considerably more stressful Bournemouth led until the 85th minute Mark Gehy equalized and then Gvarda all scored in stoppage time That goal gave new manager Enzo Maresco a 2-1 win In his first Premier League match as city manager And I think there's two ways to read into this One, City were minutes away from beginning the post-pep era With a home loss to Bournemouth The other is that this is still Man City And even on a day when it isn't working They found two goals in the final few minutes And they took home all three points What's more interesting is kind of what happens next Because the midfield transformation is accelerating Rodri is gone Bernardo Silva, gone Reinders is gone And now City are set to sign Ayub Bawadi, the wonder kid extraordinaire from Lille For a package that could be worth as much as 100 million euro Again, Bawadi, 18 years old 100 million euro We're going to get deeper into that move a little bit later But this is no longer City replacing one midfielder It is a full midfield rebuild But that doesn't mean expectations have fallen in any way Lucky Rebel had Man City over 76 league points at minus 120 With 74 to 76 at plus 550 And the under 74 at plus 145 It's a pretty demanding number for a team replacing its manager Not to mention the player around whom their entire midfield had been built previously I think the shock of the weekend had to have been Hull Hull City beat Man U 2-0 For a promoted team that entered the season as an overwhelming relegation favorite This is an enormous opening result For United, though, obviously a brutal one This is a club that spent the summer trying to change the midfield Trying to create more athleticism And to give Michael Carrick a squad capable of returning to the Champions League places consistently Instead, the first result is a two-goal defeat against a team the market expected to finish last And that makes one of the season-long numbers much more interesting Lucky Rebel had Man U over 71 points at plus 160 Between 69 and 71 at plus 500 And under 69 at minus 125 It's one game, and I'm not going to turn an August loss into a season obituary or anything like that But if you're trying to clear 71 points Hull away is exactly the kind of fixture where dropping all three really hurts There was also another promoted team win at Ipswich They beat Sunderland with a late winner While Brighton produced probably the most complete performance of the weekend Hammering Aston Villa 4-0 The Villa result deserves attention because it wasn't just a bad scoreline Unai Emery had spent the entire summer dealing with an enormous squad churn Villa lost important players And the concerns have always been whether the replacement process could happen quickly enough So the team could stay competitive at the level they've established over the last four years Well, Brighton were four goals up before halftime Villa also finished the game with ten men It's about as bad an opening afternoon as you can have Then Sunday night gave us Newcastle and Liverpool Newcastle led twice Liverpool came back twice Dominic Soboslai converted a penalty in the 99th minute And Liverpool escaped St. James Park with a 2-2 draw The match also included a tribute to Kevin Keegan before kickoff Which was especially fitting given that he meant so much to both of those clubs From Liverpool's perspective, the positive is obvious You go away, you fall behind twice, you still leave with something There were defensive problems And this is a team with championship expectations Lucky Rebel had Liverpool minus 130 to score at least 75 league goals With 80 plus at plus 175 85 plus at plus 400 I don't have that much concern about whether Liverpool can create enough offense to reach those kinds of numbers The question after the Newcastle game Is whether they're going to have to score that many because they're giving up so much on the other side Down in the championship, Wrexham and Watford drew 1-1 at the racecourse It leaves Wrexham with two points in their first two championship matches after the opening draw against Cardiff Nothing spectacular about two draws But there's nothing alarming about them either It's a club that spent the last several years moving through divisions at a ridiculous rate And I think people forget that The championships where that progression was always going to meet a much more serious week-to-week test And that's exactly what we're seeing Watford are an established second-tier side Cardiff away is never going to be an easy game Wrexham have taken something from both The rest of the championship weekend produced some interesting early separation But I'd be careful before reading too much into the table after two games The division's too volatile And we have to point out that the transfer window is of course still open Now, let's get outside of England Barcelona started their La Liga title defense in Elche And they won 5-0 Hafinha scored twice Ferman Lopez scored twice It's a pretty emphatic opening statement Atletico Madrid had a much more complicated start They drew via Royale 2-2 Robin Lee Norman was sent off But Simeone managed to rescue a point late And I think one of the most interesting debuts anywhere in Europe came in France PSG were losing 2-0 to Rennes at halftime Ferran Torres scored twice late and rescued a 2-2 draw In his first Liga 1 appearance for the club Both of those goals were assisted by Fabian Ruiz We talked last week about why I liked that transfer Luis Enrique already knows Ferran Torres He knows him extremely well from Spain He can use him centrally, he can use him wide It doesn't require an entire attack to be constructed around him And then his first Liga appearance produces two goals and a comeback Very clean start I loved that transfer Mo Salah also got off to a pretty quick start in Turkey Trasnsport beat Istanbul Besanşehir 2-1 The move is still going to take some getting used to Salah spent so long as one of the defining faces of Liverpool in the Premier League That seeing him in a Transsport shirt feels unusual But goals clearly travelled with him Serie A also opened this weekend AC Milan beat Torino 2-1 Juventus beat Frosinona 1-1 Inter beat Monza 4-1 So we've reached the point where almost all the major European leagues Are giving us results rather than projections And that's good because August predictions have a very short shelf life Once football really starts happening I think there's also an international market that I want to keep in the background Because the Nations League is going to be here really quickly Lucky Rebel has France and Spain co-favorite at plus 275 England at plus 450 Germany 500 Portugal 800 And the Netherlands plus 1200 Spain are coming off a World Cup title Germany are beginning the Jurgen Klopp era England remain close enough at the very top That anything short of a serious run is going to be disappointing That competition is going to become much more interesting once club football settles And we see which World Cup players actually carried their summer form into the season Now for this week's trip down a little bit further in the English pyramid We're going to talk about Ebsfleet United Ebsfleet are in the National League South And earlier in the summer there were legitimate questions About whether the club had a viable future The club had serious financial problems There were tax debts The ownership situation had deteriorated Supporters were dealing with the kind of uncertainty where Football itself becomes almost secondary Then Dublin businessman John O'Leary took control The tax debt was resolved And now one of the people brought in to help rebuild the club is Roddy Collins If you follow League of Ireland football at all Collins is a very recognizable figure He managed Bohemians He managed Shamrock Rovers He's 65 now And he's been out of management since 2018 He isn't coming to Ebsfleet as the manager He's coming in as a consultant Effectively acting as another set of experienced football eyes For a new ownership trying to understand What is actually bought here And I think that's the interesting part of this story When people talk about football takeovers Especially lower down the pyramid The conversation usually starts with money How much will the new owner spend? Who can they sign? How quickly do they get promoted? But when you inherit a club that's been financially unstable Spending on the first team is almost beside the point You have to understand the operation What debts exist? What contracts exist? What relationships with supporters have been damaged? What does the club actually cost to run? What revenue is real? What needs to be repaired before anybody starts talking about climbing divisions? Collins has essentially said that his job is to listen and learn He wants to speak to supporters He wants to understand the problems He wants to act as a link between the football side The ownership and the community It's not a glamorous job But it is almost certainly exactly what Ebsfleet need Because clubs at this level can disappear remarkably quickly When the financial structure fails There isn't a giant Premier League broadcasting payment Coming in to cover mistakes There isn't a giant commercial department There usually isn't a billionaire Willing to absorb another 10 million pound loss Because recruitment went badly The margin for error is tiny And Ebsfleet, they have a real football history They were Gravesend and Northfleet until 2007 Then they won the FA Trophy at Wembley in 2008 They became famous internationally When the MyFootballClub project Attempted to put football decisions in the hands of thousands of members online They've been promoted They've been relegated They've changed owners And now they've reached another one of those points Where the next ownership model has to be more sustainable than the last one O'Leary clearing the immediate debts gives them a chance But what happens after the rescue Is the part that determines whether this is actually going to work Now, transfers The biggest one developing this morning Is Ayub Bawadi to Manchester City City have agreed to a deal with Lille Worth 95 million euro up front With another 5 million potentially coming in add-ons As I said earlier, Bawadi is 18 He made 30 League 1 appearances last season He helped Lille finish 3rd and qualify for the Champions League He's generally considered, if not the best One of the absolute tip-top best wonder kids in football But 100 million, I mean, wow Maybe it looks like a bargain 3 years from now But 100 million is a risk He made his senior Morocco debut in May He started 5 of Morocco's 6 matches at the World Cup As they reached the quarters It's an extraordinary resume for an 18-year-old midfielder There's no question about that And the price tells you that City aren't buying him As someone they hope can eventually replace Rodri They're buying him because they believe he can become the guy Right now The central midfielder of the next version of this team Maresca already said the City need to find the next Rodri Bawadi gives them someone with defensive range Composure under pressure And an unusual amount of senior experience for his age But I do think there's also a broader point here City already spent 116 million on Elliot Anderson Now potentially another 85 million pounds on Bawadi That is not a conservative succession plan They're spending an enormous amount of money To make sure the midfield doesn't decline While the old core leaves As a lucky rebel Man City is minus 125 to win at least one major trophy this year With no major trophy at minus 115 It's basically a coin flip on whether this transition Immediately produces silverware Man U are also making their own midfield investment They've agreed to an initial 65 million deal with Brighton For Carlos Baleba With another 5 million in possible add-ons Baleba's 22 He's made 112 appearances for Brighton Since coming in from Lille Who apparently just love selling young midfielders He's also a Cameroonian international The move still has to be formally completed But the logic here is obvious United needs legs They need ball carrying They need someone who can defend large spaces They need a midfielder who can turn recovery Into forward momentum Rather than just recycling possession Baleba does all those things United already added Yuri Tielemans And Andre Santos this summer So if Baleba is completed It's essentially an entirely new midfield group In one window And I guess it's fair to say that After losing 2-0 to Hull The urgency is only going to get louder To get that group functioning As quickly as possible Tell me if you've heard this before But Tottenham are already close to another major deal as well They've reportedly agreed to a 75 million fee With Manchester City for Savino With another 10 million in possible add-ons Savino made 24 Premier League appearances For City last year And the important part is that He wants the move Maresca has acknowledged that Savino Made his desire clear That he wants to leave They've already brought in Sandro Tonali And Matthijs Fernandes So if Savino arrives too De Jervis is getting a squad Built around players who can play aggressively with the ball Rather than simply trying to add recognizable names And that's incredibly important That's where the expectations become really interesting too Lucky Rebel has Tottenham Over 62 league points at even money 60-62 at plus 500 Under 60 Plus 130 The number feels like a pretty good line In between an interesting rebuild And a hey this could actually work There are a few other moves too That deserve attention Coventry signed Tiwo Iwane from Nottingham Forest For a reported fee around 9 million I like that For a promoted club He already knows the Premier League He gives Coventry a physical strong central forward And 9 million is not an amount That destroys the entire transfer strategy If this one goes bad Palace have also agreed to take Axel Desassi On loan from Chelsea The move became necessary After Lacroix left Palace for Chelsea They also made it clear that Adam Wharton Is not available Despite the Man City interest That is sensible squad management You lose one starting center back You replace those minutes with an experienced Premier League defender on loan You don't panic and sell another important player Simply because bigger clubs call One rumor I'd keep an eye on Involves Hull There are credible rumors Reporting that they're interested in Mohamed Ali Chou From Nice for around 15 million Not to repeat myself But that is exactly the kind of move I want to see promoted clubs making Chou is only 22 He's played in France, Spain, and England He can play across the front line So if Hull stay up You potentially have a Premier League attacker Entering his prime If they don't You have a young player With potentially big resale value Rather than another expensive veteran contract Sitting on championship books The lucky rebel board Had Hull at plus 250 To stay up Compared with Coventry and Ipswich Both at even money Hull were also even money to finish dead last One win doesn't save a season Or erase underlying concerns But three points against Man U Are three points you absolutely Were not building into the survival calculation At the beginning of the season On the women's side One move I wanted to flag Was the Seattle Reign signing Cote d'Ivoire international Ami Diallo from ASEC Diallo scored 31 goals last year She helped the team win consecutive league titles And reached the CAF Women's Champions League final She was also a final For CAF Women's Interclub Player of the Year That's a big move Seattle aren't simply taking another player Who's already been established In the NWSL or the WSL They're going into African club football And acquiring a highly productive young attacker Before somebody else does Those are the kinds of moves that I think Become increasingly important as the women's transfer market Globalizes The bigger leagues are getting richer Transfer fees are growing Scouting networks are getting wider And that means clubs need to identify talent earlier That can create enormous resale value For them And one last thing before we finish The Premier League season is one weekend old And the temptation is always to turn every result Into a conclusion Arsenal are definitely winning the league Man U, definitely broken Hull, well they're staying up Villa, they're in trouble None of that is knowable yet But opening weekend can tell you Where the pressure is going next Arsenal look completely comfortable Carrying the title City won but their midfield rebuild Is becoming one of the defining stories of the season United have to absorb A terrible first result While trying to integrate another major signing Villa have to show that their summer turnover Hasn't fundamentally lowered their level Liverpool have to tighten up defensively And Hull and Ipswich Already have something every promoted club Desperately wants An unexpected three points That's a pretty good first weekend And man, I'm happy Real Football's back I'm Chris Horvidell, it's been the Underdog Football Show I'll talk to you next week