Parlay 0822

In sports betting, the holy grail for any gambler is the big parlay. It's the quickest way to make a ton of money. And that is what we're going to do here every single week. I'm Chris Horwadel, and this is my quest for unimaginable riches through impractical odds. Welcome to In Pursuit of a Parlay. Hey, everybody, and welcome to another episode of In Pursuit of a Parlay. I'm your host, Chris Horwadel, and today we've got a pretty simple mission. I want to build an eight-leg Major League Baseball parlay for Saturday night, but I'm attacking this one a little bit differently. Normally, there's at least one point in these things where I want to convince myself that a plus 140 prop is somehow the safest bet in sports history, but not today. Today, I want to build the most achievable eight-leg parlay I reasonably could using the lines at Lucky Rebel Sportsbook. And when I say achievable, there's one qualifier. Yes, mathematically, I could take eight things like no extra innings at minus 1,200 or minus 1,500 and create the world's least exciting parlay, but we're not doing that. I want something that still actually pays when we're done with it. So I went through the board looking for the combination of matchups, current form, opportunity, and price that gives us the best chance of getting eight green checkmarks, and I think we have. After trying totals and alternate run lines and pitcher props and a couple of money lines, the Lucky Rebel board kept pushing me back towards the same market. One hit, not two hits, not a home run, definitely not an RBI, just get on base once with a hit. We've got eight of those. So let's build the thing. Pick one, Yandy Diaz to record a hit, minus 400. Well, we'll start in Baltimore with Tampa Bay first baseman Yandy Diaz to record a hit at minus 400 at Lucky Rebel. Yeah, minus 400 is a giant number for a hit prop. That's kind of the point today, though. Diaz enters the game hitting 308 with 19 home runs, 72 RBIs and an 850 OPS. He's third in the AL in batting average and leads the league in hits. Tampa Bay as a team has been swinging it really well recently over their last 10 games. The Rays are hitting 282 and they're averaging exactly 10 hits per game. The opposing starter is Brandon Young, and this is also a really useful immediate rematch. Young faced Tampa Bay on Monday and allowed four earned in four innings. For the season, he has a 3.52 ERA, but the 1.351 whip tells you that runners are getting on base against him. I don't need Diaz to drive it into the gap. I don't care if it's 62 miles an hour off the bat. Find grass once. That's all we need. That's leg number one. Pick number two, we're going to Luis Arias to record a hit. We are moving to Philadelphia on this one, taking Luis Arias. That's going to come in at minus 385 at Lucky Rebel. This is probably my favorite pure one hit player in baseball because Arias' entire offensive identity is built around putting the ball in play. The guy is hitting 3.22 for the season over Philly's last 10. He has 15 hits while batting 3.41. Then Friday night against the same Cardinals, he went out and got three more hits. Now, St. Louis is starting lefty Quinn Matthews, and normally I'd at least pause when I saw the lefty on lefty matchup. But here's why I'm not scared. Stat Muse has a rise hitting 3.19 against left-handed pitching this season. So this hasn't been some enormous platoon weakness or anything like that. We're asking one of the best contact hitters of this generation who's currently seeing the ball extremely well for one hit. I'm going to take that all day and well, once on Saturday. All right, now we're going to get a little more controversial here. We're going to stay in Philadelphia for our second and final leg from the Cardinals Phillies. We're going Alec Boehm to record a hit minus 300. So if Arias is about the long-term contact profile, Boehm is about riding current form. Over Philly's last 10 games, he's hitting 4.63 and he leads the team with 12 RBIs. Last night, you ask? Three for five, an RBI single. Then a walk-off two-run triple in the 10th that gave Philly a seventh consecutive win. And I mentioned Matthews being left-handed. Boehm is right-handed. Even though we're dealing with a small sample size, he was five for five against lefties from August 5th through August 19th. Again, we're not asking him to recreate last night's heroics. Just one hit. That's all. Just one. The Phillies are batting 284 as a team and averaging nine and a half hits over their last 10 games. So I'm comfortable doubling up here. And that is three legs down. Pick four. Next, we head to San Diego. Fernando Tatis to record a hit minus 345 at Lucky Rebel. Fernando is hitting 284 this season, which leads the Padres. He comes into Saturday with 15 home runs and 62 RBIs. The underlying matchup is what pushes this one over the top for me. The minister to starter is Dean Kramer, who has a 5.40 ERA. Looking at his last five starts, he gave up five hits allowed to Philly. One against Baltimore, three against KC, eight against Detroit, eight against Boston. 25 hits allowed across five outings. And three of those starts lasted six innings or fewer. Then what is Tatis doing right now? Well, on Tuesday against the Massey homered twice. So he's not merely producing. He's seeing the baseball really, really, really well right now. And the leading projection system cited in today's matchup analysis has Tatis ranked 11th in baseball and projected batting average talent. Yeah. Statistical analysis. Analytics. We, we got it all here. I don't need the home run version though. I will happily take for the boring single. And that is pick four pick number five. We're going to go to the one I'm very, very interested in the game. I absolutely wanted exposure to Cleveland at Colorado. The total on the lucky rebel sheet is 11 hits here. 11. So if the assignment is a find me somebody to get one hit, I have a hard time ignoring the game. A course field is being priced. Like we're going to see offense all freaking night. First guy I'm going with Steven Kwan to record hit minus three 60. Kwan's season line doesn't jump off the page at two 65, but August has been much better to this point in August. He's had 20 hits and 61 at bats a three 28 average with a four 61 OBP for the month. More importantly, look at who Colorado is starting. Gabriel Hughes has a 6.69 ERA in his last two starts. He's allowed eight hits and seven earned runs and four innings against San Francisco. Then five hits and seven earned runs and four innings against Arizona, 13 hits, 14 earned runs, eight innings. And now he has to pitch it cores against the guy whose game is built around contact. That is exactly the kind of spot we're looking for. This one, I'm going to call it the lock of the night. Feels good. Put put all your money on it. In fact, I am going to double down myself and go large on an individual bet on this one as well. Feel good about it. Moving on pick six, we're going to use our second Cleveland Colorado leg on Joe Adele to record hit minus three 25 at lucky rebel. And part of this is simply refusing to overthink what we just watched. Cleveland beat Colorado nine to one on Friday night. The Guardians piled up hits. Travis Buzana had four of them. Adele had to. Nathaniel Lowe also had to. Colorado starter Tanner Gordon gave up nine hits and five and a third. Now Cleveland gets Hughes, whose recent numbers I just gave you, and they're they're not good if you're a fan of Colorado. So I'm looking at that lineup that just scored nine runs and got multiple hits from Adele less than 24 hours ago in the same ballpark against the starter who's been getting hit really hard recently. I considered getting cute here. You know, an RBI, a run score, maybe maybe two total bases, but no, the whole point of this ticket is not getting cute. One hit from Adele. We are six for eight. Moving on to number seven, this leg takes us to Houston, where I want Jordan Alvarez to record a hit. The number at Lucky Rebel is minus 300, and Jordan is coming directly off of the two for three night against the same athletics team in which both hits were RBI doubles. His recent form goes beyond one game over Houston's last ten Alvarez is slashing 313, 425, 531. He is seeing it right now. He's hitting it right now. As recently as this week, he was sitting on 36 home runs and 88 RBIs while putting together an MVP level season. Actually, I believe the current favorite over at Lucky Rebel to win the MVP. Oakland's giving the ball to Jacob Lopez, who enters with a 5.22 ERA in 88 and two thirds innings. Yeah, Lopez is a lefty, so this isn't a perfectly manufactured platoon matchup, and I don't care at all about that. I can't move off of this. This is Jordan Alvarez needing one hit against a pitcher with a five plus ERA one night after Jordan smoked two doubles against the same team. Minus 300 is expensive, but for what we're building, expensive is good. And that is pick seven. Pick eight. Our final leg comes from Mets White Sox. Beau Bichette to record a hit minus 300 on Lucky Rebel. So there's two different pieces to this that I think are interesting. First, Bichette homered Friday night. He took Schoenberg deep in the fifth inning and continued what has been a much better August after an uneven season. Right now, that August line is hitting 318 with a 388 OBP and a 5.23 slugging percentage. Second, I like the pitcher that we're attacking here. Luis Castillo enters the night with a 4.99 ERA, which admittedly looks great compared to some of the pitchers we've talked about tonight, but he's also allowed opposing hitters to bat 266 against him. In his most recent start against the Cubs, he gave up eight hits and four and two thirds. And if you go back a little further, you're going to find six hits allowed in four innings against Boston, 11 in five innings against the Dodgers. So three of his last four starts have included at least six hits allowed. Bichette does not need to hit another home run. He needs to be one of the guys who finds a spot and gets the ball into play. That's it. That is the eighth leg. So when we put it all together, Yandy Diaz, one hit, minus 400. Luis Araiz, one hit, minus 385. Alec Bohm, one hit, minus 300. Fernando Tatis Jr., one hit, minus 345. Steven Kwan, one hit, minus 360. Joe Adele, one hit, minus 325. Jordan Alvarez, one hit, minus 300. And Bobichette, two home runs. No, of course, one hit, minus 300. Eight legs, six different games. Nobody needs to homer. Nobody needs to drive in a run. Nobody needs his team to win. Nobody has to get us two hits. We need eight professional hitters to each find grass once. So if you take all of those together and you put it in a pot in our eight leg parlay, we are looking at plus 704 at Lucky Rebel. A $25 bet returns about 200 bucks, 50 a little over 400. And look, obviously eight leg parlays are still eight leg parlays, even with a collection of short individual prices, that straight applied probability here isn't great, but I think we played it pretty well tonight. I think we did the job that we needed to do and put ourselves in the best position to make some money. I'm telling you, if you force me to find eight legs and my number one priority is making the ticket as achievable as possible while still giving us a worthwhile payout, this is where I land. No hero ball, just eight simple base hits. As always, I'm definitely not telling you what to do with your money. In fact, I'm going to tell you again, that hitting an eight leg parlay is extraordinarily hard. If you want to place a bet, take what you like from mine. Take out what you don't put in what you want from yours. Do what makes you feel comfortable. Don't force things, gamble responsibly, and let's win this thing because I definitely, definitely think we can. That's going to do it for this episode of In Pursuit of a Parlay. I've been your host, Chris Horvidell. Thanks for listening. Good luck with whatever you're playing tonight, and we will see you next time.