NFL 285

You're listening to the Underdog Sports NFL Show with host Chris Horwadel and Mario Hines. Brought to you by Underdog Sports. Hey everybody, Chris Horwadel here and welcome to another episode of the Underdog NFL Show. We're back with another divisional preview and today we've reached the AFC North, a division that's almost unrecognizable compared to what we thought we knew. Mike Tomlin's no longer coaching the Steelers, John Harbaugh no longer coaching the Ravens, Kevin Stefanski no longer coaching the Browns, Zach Taylor somehow is the only remaining head coach in the entire division. As we've done throughout this series, we're going to be going team by team through free agency, trades, the draft, look at some odds, and then I'm going to give you my final order. First, the market at Lucky Rebel, Baltimore's even money to win the AFC North, Cincinnati's plus 165, Pittsburgh plus 525, and Cleveland is plus 2,500. It's a very clear two-team top tier. One team hanging around and then the Browns sitting way, way, way, way off in the distance. Let's start with the clubhouse favorite, the Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore went 8-9 last year, but it was one of the stronger, stranger 8-9 seasons you're going to see. The Ravens started 1-5, ripped off five straight wins and still entered week 18 with a chance to take the division. They lost 26-24 to Pittsburgh despite finishing the season with a plus 26 point differential. Baltimore scored 424 points, 27 more than the division champion Pittsburgh. That's a strong signal that the standings didn't tell us the entire story. Lamar Jackson missed four games and played through hamstring, knee, ankle, and toe problems. Even in a down year, he completed 64% of his passes through 21 touchdowns against seven interceptions and had a 103.8 passer rating. He only ran for 349 yards, though, which is a giant flashing sign that we didn't see the fully operational Lamar last year. Derrick Henry, meanwhile, remained a completely unreasonable person. He ran for 1,595 yards, scored 16 rushing touchdowns, and averaged 5.2 yards per carry at the age of 31. His 216-yard four-touchdown game against Green Bay gave him an NFL record 14 games with at least 150 rushing yards and two scores. Breaking a tie with some guy named Jim Brown. Zay Flowers also made a jump. He had 86 catches for 1,211 yards and a 14.1 yards per reception average. The offense still fell from number one in the NFL in 2024 to 16th last season, and the Red Zone touchdown rate was only 47%, good for 27th in the league. That's where new head coach Jesse Mentor and 30-year-old offensive coordinator Declan Doyle enter the picture. Doyle is getting his first play-calling job, so there's real upside, but also real uncertainty. The roster churn was enormous. Baltimore lost All-Pro center Tyler Lindebaum to Las Vegas on a guaranteed three-year $81 million deal. Isaiah Likely, Patrick Ricard, Charlie Kohler, Keaton Mitchell, Tylan Wallace, Jordan Stout, Aloha Gilman, Draymont Jones, and Adarius Washington also left. So, there wasn't one hole. There was no shortage of work for the front office this offseason. The response, however, was very Ravens. They signed guard John Simpson, brought back Chidobi Awuzieh, and reunited with Calais Campbell. Most importantly, they signed Trey Hendrickson away from Cincinnati. Hendrickson had only four sacks and an injury short in 2025, but he had 17.5 in each of the previous two seasons. Baltimore only had 30 sacks as a team last year. A healthy Hendrickson changes the math completely. And no, Max Crosby's not walking through that door. That trade was reported, celebrated, and then it fell apart. For a few hours, though, Baltimore had assembled the most terrifying pass rush in the history of the team. The draft was basically an attack on the supporting structure. At number 14, they took Penn State guard Vega Ione, the first guard selected in the draft and the highest drafted guard in Ravens history. He's the immediate attempt to offset losing Linderbaum and stabilizing the interior. Round two brought Missouri edge Zion Young, whose sack total rose from 2.5 to 6.5 last year. Then Baltimore drafted 6'4 USC receiver Jacoby Lane, who ran a 4.47, and Indiana's Elijah Surratt, nicknamed Waffle House because he's always open. If you get an NFL nickname without taking an NFL snap, Waffle House is about as good as it can possibly get. They also traded up for SMU tight end Matt Hibner and drafted Michigan State punter Ryan Eckley, whose 47.6-yard career average was a Big Ten record. The ceiling's obvious. Healthy Lamar, Henry refusing to age, Flowers ascending, a renovated offensive line, and Hendrickson finishing pressures. The questions are equally clear. A rookie head coach, a first-time play caller, major losses down the middle of the roster, and a defense that allowed more than 6,000 yards last year. At Lucky Rebel, Baltimore's plus 550 to win the AFC and plus 1,200 to win the Super Bowl. The Ravens open at Indianapolis is a three-point favorite with the money line at minus 175 and a total of 47.5. I understand why they're the division favorite. I'm just not sure even money pays you for all of the transition here. Moving to the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are the easiest team in football to explain and one of the hardest to predict. If Joe Burrow is healthy, they can beat anybody. If Joe Burrow is not healthy, everything gets weird really quickly. Burrow had toe surgery and missed nine games last year. In the eight games he played, he threw 17 touchdowns against five picks with a 100.7 rating. Joe Flacco helped keep the passing game alive, but Cincinnati finished 6-11 and missed the playoffs for a third straight year. The passing game stars were still absurd. Jamar Chase caught 125 passes for 1,412 yards. He became only the fifth player ever to begin a career with five consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons, joining Randy Moss, A.J. Green, Mike Evans, and Justin Jefferson. T. Higgins also had 11 touchdowns on only 59 catches. Chase Brown ran for 1,019 yards and caught 69 passes for another 437 while scoring 11 total touchdowns. This team does not need to manufacture skill position talent. It needs to keep Burrow upright and occasionally prevent the other team from scoring. Because last year's defense was a disaster. 6,475 yards allowed, 492 points allowed, 60 touchdowns allowed, and 5.2 yards surrendered per rushing attempt. The Bengals scored 414 points and still had a minus 78 point differential. So this offseason, the Bengals didn't dabble on defense. They went hard. They traded the No. 10 overall pick to the Giants for Dexter Lawrence and extended him through 2028. Lawrence is a three-time Pro Bowler with 30.5 career sacks from the interior. Then, they added Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe, safeties Brian Cook and Kyle Duggar, and corner Jesser Taylor. Yes, Hendrickson left for Baltimore. That will be discussed twice a year and loudly. But if you're asking whether Cincinnati's defense is more balanced, Lawrence and Allen in the middle may matter more than replacing one edge rusher with another edge rusher. They also retained Flacco and Dalton Reisner, extended Orlando Brown Jr., all five projected starting offensive linemen return. Although this is a line that didn't always make Burrow look and feel safe. Without a first-round pick, Cincinnati began its draft with Texas A&M edge Cassius Howe. Round three brought long Washington cornerback Ticario Davis, center Connor Lew as a developmental bet coming off an ACL injury, while Georgia receiver Colby Young adds another big target. My favorite late-round Bengals fact, Landon Robinson is a 5'11", 293-pound defensive tackle from Navy who produced 153 tackles and 18.5 tackles for a loss in college. He's built like a vending machine and he gets into the backfield. The Bengals' balance is better, but this season's still going to be a referendum on Burrow's durability, the offensive line, and Zach Taylor. When the other three teams change coaches and you're the one guy who stays after three missed postseasons, continuity can start sounding like a lot of pressure. At Lucky Rebel, Cincinnati's minus 900 to win the AFC, plus 2200 to win the Super Bowl. Week one has the Bengals laying three and a half at home against Tampa Bay, money line minus 190 with a total of 52. The highest total involving an AFC North team on opening weekend and it feels right. Every Bengals game is a potential track meet until this defense proves otherwise. By the way, I love that we're close enough to the season that we could talk about week one lines right now. Let's move on to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers went 10-7, won the division, and then lost 30-6 to Houston in the wildcard round. They've not won a playoff game since the 2016 season. That just doesn't sound right. That ending led to something the NFL had not seen in a very long time. Mike Tomlin stepped away after 19 years without a losing record. Pittsburgh then hired hometown guy Mike McCarthy, making him only the fourth Steelers head coach since 1969. If you're counting at home, that's four coaches since the moon landing. McCarthy's reuniting with Aaron Rodgers, who's back for a 22nd and allegedly final NFL season. Rodgers was solid last year. 3,300, 22 yards, 24 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and a 94.8% passer rating. In a playoff loss, though, he threw for 146 yards and committed two turnovers that Houston returned for touchdowns. Pittsburgh's 10 wins were built on timing and takeaways. The Steelers had a plus-12 turnover margin but were outgained by 872 yards. The defense finished 26th in total yards and produced only 13 sacks despite employing TJ Watt, Alex Highsmith, and Nick Herbig. That's the weird part of all of this. Highsmith had 9.5 sacks, Herbig had 7.5, Watt had 7, and somehow the team total was still only 31. New defensive coordinator Patrick Graham has to turn three dangerous individual rushers into a dangerous pass rush. The offense added a much-needed second receiver by trading for Michael Pittman and giving him a new three-year deal. Put 6'4 Pittman across from 6'4 DK Metcalf and Pittsburgh now has the most intimidating pair of guys who can ask whether you played basketball in high school. They signed Rico Daldel to pair with Jalen Warren, who ran for 958 yards last year. On defense, they added Jamal Dean, Asante Samuel Jr., Jaquan Brisker, and Sebastian Joseph Day. Cameron Hayward's back, too. The draft started with Arizona tackle Max Ahenacher at No. 21. It matters because Pittsburgh allowed 48 sacks last year. And the best way to help a 42-year-old quarterback is to stop allowing large people to fall on him. Alabama receiver Jeremy Bernard adds another polished target. Then Pittsburgh took Penn State quarterback Drew Aller in the third round. He gets a season with Rodgers and McCarthy while the Steelers figure out whether he's the future or merely the next name in a very long quarterback graphic. They also drafted Georgia cornerback Daylon Everett, Iowa guard Jennings Dunker, who I love, and Navy athlete Eli Hindenreich, a Pittsburgh-area native who can line up just about anywhere. The roster's more talented than the plus-525 division price might imply, but turnover margins tend to regress. The defense allowed more than 6,000 yards, the quarterback is entering his last season, and the organization's changing its operating system after 19 years. At Lucky Rebel, Pittsburgh is plus-2,800 to win the AFC and plus-7,500 to win the Super Bowl. The Steelers are three-and-a-half-point home favorites against Atlanta in Week 1, minus 165 on the money line with a total of 42. That number's basically the market saying, we respect Pittsburgh, but we'd like to see McCarthy and Rodgers 2.0 before getting carried away. And our final team, the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland went 5-12 and scored 279 points, fewest in the division by 118. I'm gonna let you sit with that for a second. The offense averaged 4.2 yards per play, allowed 53 sacks, and finished with a minus-7 turnover margin. And yet, the defense allowed only 4,822 yards and had 51 sacks. That's the Browns' experience. One side of the ball trying to build a house, and the other side trying desperately to knock it down. Miles Garrett set an NFL record with 23 sacks and won Defensive Player of the Year in the NFL last year. Rookie linebacker Carson Schweitzinger piled up 157 tackles on his way to Defensive Rookie of the Year. The Cleveland Browns made the biggest trade in the division. The Browns sent Garrett to the Rams for Jared Vers, a 2027 first-round pick, a 2028 second, and a 2029 third. Trading away Garrett hurts, there's no clever way around it, but Vers was the 2024 Defensive Rookie of the Year. Pair him with Schweitzinger, the 2025 winner, and Cleveland becomes the first team ever to roster each of the last two Defensive Rookies of the Year. That isn't surrender, it's an interesting rebuild move. New head coach Todd Monkkin has to solve the quarterback problem. Deshaun Watson's returning from an Achilles injury that cost him last season. Shadour Sanders threw seven touchdowns to ten interceptions as a rookie. Dylan Gabriel threw seven against two. And sixth-round pick Talon Green is now in the room as well. You would think four quarterbacks is depth, but this looks more like a group project where nobody really wants to take the lead. There are young pieces to like on this team, though. Rookie tight end Harold Fannin Jr. led the team with 72 catches, 731 yards, and six touchdowns. Quenshawn Judkins ran for 827 yards and seven scores. Mason Graham, Schweitzinger, Vers, Denzel Ward, and Grant Delpit can form a real defensive core. The offensive line was almost completely rebuilt. Cleveland traded for Titus Howard and signed him to a three-year, $63 million deal. They added Zion Johnson and Eldon Jenkins and retained Tevin Jenkins. That was necessary because Joel Batonio retired and Wyatt Teller left. The draft leaned hard into giving the next quarterback a chance. Cleveland traded down and took Utah tackle Spencer Fannell with ninth overall. Then it added two receivers in the first 39 picks. Texas A&M's Casey Concepcion at 24 and Washington's 6'4 Denzel Ballston at 39. Safety Emmanuel McNeil Warren and Florida tackle Austin Barber followed on day two. Center Parker Browsford and Green were selected in day three. The Browns didn't pretend they were one veteran away here. They invested in tackles, receivers, tight ends, a center, a safety, a linebacker, and a quarterback. It's a very different looking team. The strength of this roster is a young defense that may still be good even after losing a Hall of Fame-level pass rusher. The weakness is the most important position in sports. Until Watson, Sanders, Gabriel, or Green gives Cleveland a competent quarterback, the rest of it's just theoretical. At Lucky Rebel, Cleveland is plus 15,000 to win the AFC and plus 25,000 to win the Super Bowl. The Browns open is seven and a half point underdogs at Jacksonville, plus 280 on the money line with a total of 40 and a half. The lowest AFC North total and the biggest AFC North spread both belong to Cleveland. The market is not being subtle. Final predictions. So how does the AFC North finish? Fourth, Cleveland. I like the young defensive nucleus. I like the draft, and I think trading Garrett for verse plus three future premium draft picks is a defensible reset. But I cannot pick a team to climb this division when its quarterback competition includes an injured veteran, two second-year players who combined for 17 touchdowns last season, and a sixth-round RAW rookie. Third, Pittsburgh. The Steelers aren't bad. They may be pretty good. McCarthy can coach offense, Rogers still protects the football, and Metcalf plus Pittman is a serious receiving duo, but a plus 12 turnover margin covered quite a bit of structural problems last year. Add a 42-year-old quarterback and a total coaching change, and plus 525 is not quite tempting enough here. Second place, Baltimore. The Ravens may have the highest ceiling in the division. If Lamar's healthy and Hendrickson gives them a real edge threat, they can win the AFC. But losing Linderbaum in that much depth while changing a head coach and an offensive play caller is a lot to absorb immediately. So first place, Cincinnati. This feels like a pretty healthy bet, obviously. It's also a bet that a defensive front featuring Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen, Shamar Stewart, and Miles Murphy cannot possibly resemble the group that allowed 492 points last year. The Bengals already had the division's best quarterback-receiver combo. If the defense can merely become average, and if Burrow plays 15 or 16 games, the Bengals can jump from six wins to the top of the North. The final lucky Rebel order is Bengals plus 165, Ravens even money, Steelers plus 525, Browns plus 2500. If you want the safer roster, Baltimore is defensible. If you want the price I find the most interesting, it's probably Cincinnati. If I'm building one final AFC North card at lucky Rebel, it's Bengals to win the division at plus 165, Ravens to win the AFC at plus 550 as a hedge against being wrong, and absolutely nothing involving Cleveland to plus 25,000 to win the Super Bowl. Because optimism is healthy, but we do have to have limits here. This has been a lot of fun. I love going division by division because it forces us to catch the signings we forgot, the draft picks that we didn't talk enough about, and the rosters that changed much more than we thought they did. Now we've made our way through the AFC North. I've been Chris Horvidell. This has been the Underdog NFL Show. Thanks for listening. We'll see you back here real soon.