WCS 07 19 26

Welcome to the Underdog World Cup show from Underdog Podcasts. I'm Chris Horvidell, and every day during the tournament, we're breaking down the matches, the moments, the teams under pressure, and the games coming next. This is the Underdog World Cup show. Welcome to the Underdog World Cup show. I'm Chris Horvidell, and I can't believe I'm saying this. The final day of the 2026 World Cup is here. Spain and Argentina meet at three o'clock Eastern Time in New York, New Jersey. But before we get there, we're going to have to talk about one of the most gloriously ridiculous third place games in World Cup history. England beat France 6-4 on Saturday. That's not a typo. Ten goals. A Bukayo Saka hat-trick. Four England goals before halftime, a late French comeback that briefly made everything uncomfortable, and one more goal after France had cut the deficit to 5-4. The market expected an open game, but even lucky Rebels' total of 3.5 ended up looking wildly conservative. Declan Rice opened the scoring, Esri Kansa added another, and Saka scored twice as England built a 4-0 halftime lead against a completely disorganized French defense. Saka then completed his hat-trick from the penalty spot in the 87th minute. France did at least give Didier Deschamps a competitive second half in his final match after 14 years in charge. Kylian Mbappe scored twice, Bradley Barkle added another, and Ousmane Dembele scored France's fourth in stoppage time. It's also worth mentioning, France missed three or four absolute sitters and could have easily scored seven and won this one. Jude Bellingham responded with England's sixth almost immediately after coming into the game, ending any thought of a truly absurd French comeback. England finishes third at the World Cup for the first time, its previous best result after winning the tournament in 1966 were fourth place finishes in 1990 and 2018. It was also a historic night for Mbappe. His two goals gave him 10 this tournament and 22 across his World Cup career moving him into first place on the competition's all-time scoring list. Mbappe also takes control of the Golden Boot race as he now has 10 goals, two more than Lionel Messi entering today's final. Not that it's impossible, but it's also worth mentioning that Messi needs these two goals against a Spain defense that has given up one goal in seven games so far this tournament. Messi needs two to draw level and because assists are the first tiebreaker, his four assists would put him ahead of Mbappe's three. Michael Alise also finished France's tournament run with seven assists, which Reuters reports is a single World Cup record. The match itself was probably the clearest possible illustration of why third place games are so unpredictable. Both teams rotated, both were emotionally drained, and France looked like it had spent the opening 45 minutes mentally preparing for the flight home. England deserves credit for taking advantage. Saka was direct, Rice attacked the box, and Thomas Tuchel's team played with considerably more freedom than it showed while protecting the lead against Argentina in the semifinals. Now, we move on to the final. More history as Argentina is attempting to become the first team since Brazil in 1958-1962 to win consecutive World Cups. Spain's trying to win its second title and its first since 2010. It's also the tournament's best attack versus its best defense. Argentina scored a World Cup-high 19 goals. Spain, as I mentioned earlier, has allowed one. Spain's won six matches and drawn one. Argentina is 7-0. Spain carries a 37-match unbeaten streak into the finals. Argentina has won 14 consecutive games and hasn't lost in its last 13 World Cup matches. At lucky rubble, Spain is plus-125 to win in regulation, Argentina's plus-260, and the draw is plus-205. The more meaningful championship market has Spain at minus-160 to lift the trophy, with Argentina at plus-130. That makes Spain a clear favorite, but not an overwhelming one. This is still Argentina, this is still Messi, and still a team that has found a way to survive nearly every kind of difficult game. The tactical contrast is fascinating. Spain wants to control the ball for long stretches. They want to stretch Argentina horizontally and force its midfield to spend long periods chasing. Luis de la Fuente has built a team that can dominate possession without becoming harmless. Lamine Yamal provides the one-on-one creativity, Nico Williams gives Spain another direct threat from the opposite side, Mikel Uriarzabal creates smart movement through the middle, and Spain's midfield continues to change the angle of attack. But Spain's real advantage in this tournament has been its defense. It's conceded only 2.15 expected goals across 7 games, about 0.31 per match, and only one actual goal. That is an outrageous level across a World Cup. Argentina's challenge is finding a way to make the game less clean. Lionel Scaloni will want Argentina to spend 90 minutes defending in a neat, predictable shape while Spain circulates the ball around it. Argentina needs duels, transitions, loose second balls, and moments where Messi can receive before Spain has established its defensive structure. Messi has taken 34 shots in this tournament, the most of any player on either side today. Yamal has taken 23, Uriarzabal has taken 22. The lucky rebel sheet has Messi at plus 155 any time scorer, Uriarzabal is plus 200, and Yamal is plus 270. Messi scoring is the obvious story, but it's also a fairly logical market. He has 8 goals, Argentina continues to generate penalties and direct free kick opportunities, and nearly every important attacking sequence eventually runs through him. The question is how much space will Spain allow around the top of the penalty area? Spain doesn't defend Messi by asking one player to follow him everywhere. It's going to try to compress the central space, block his passing angles, and make somebody else beat him consistently. That somebody could be Latorre Martinez, who scored the semifinal winner against England. It could be Julian Alvarez, attacking space behind Spain's back line. It could also be Enzo Fernandez arriving late from the midfield. Argentina has frequently outperformed the quality of its chances that they create. It's usually difficult to sustain, but a lead finishing and Messi's passing have allowed them to keep doing it. Spain has been the more structurally convincing team, Argentina have been the more dramatic one. The total at Lucky Rebel is set at 2 goals with the over priced at minus 145 and the under at plus 125. It's a very different expectation from Saturday's chaos, and the odds kind of make this one look like a coin flip. I get the lower total. Finals often begin cautiously, and Spain's barely conceded anything. Argentina also knows that opening the game too early could allow Yamal and Williams to attack an unsettled back line. The first 20 minutes is going to be more about positioning than chances. Spain will want to determine whether Argentina presses high or drops into a mid-block. Argentina will want to see how aggressively Spain's fullbacks advance and whether there's going to be space to counter behind them. If Spain scores first, the match could open significantly. Argentina would have to take more risks, Messi would receive the ball higher, and Spain's wingers will find more transition space. If Argentina scores first, we may get the most interesting version of this final. Spain controlling the ball while Argentina protects a lead and waits for Messi to create a second. For me, one of the more interesting prices on the sheet today is Spain to score in both halves at plus 275 at Lucky Rebel. Argentina is plus 425 to do the same. Those are difficult bets in a final, but they also kind of illustrate the basic difference between the teams. Spain is trying to apply steady pressure across a full match. Argentina is likely to create a few massive moments. My lean is Spain. Argentina has the best individual player in the match and the experience of winning the trophy four years ago, but Spain's been the strongest team from one end of the tournament to the other. They've allowed one goal, conceded almost no quality chances, and shown it can win with possession, in transition, or through patience. I think Argentina tries to make this one uncomfortable because that's what Argentina does, but Spain's width and midfield control should eventually create enough openings. The image everyone's going to remember before kickoff is Messi against Jumal, a 39-year-old legend facing a 19-year-old star who once appeared in a famous photo with Messi as a baby. But the final will probably be decided by the players around them. Who wins second balls, which defense survives the first mistake, and which bench provides the decisive substitution? And with thousands of supporters making one final World Cup trip, I'd like to tell you a little bit about Airbnb. A World Cup trip can be hectic enough without forcing your travel plans into the wrong kind of accommodation. Airbnb gives you different types of places to choose from, whether you're traveling with friends, family, or just trying to stay close to the action. Check out Airbnb when you're planning a trip of your own. Spain, Argentina kick off at 3 o'clock Eastern Time. I hope you all enjoy. I'm Chris Horwidel. We'll see you back here to talk about the final tomorrow.