WCS 07 10 26

Welcome to the Underdog World Cup show from Underdog Podcasts. I'm Chris Horvidell, and every day during the tournament, we're breaking down the matches, the moments, the teams under pressure, and the games coming next. This is the Underdog World Cup show. Welcome to the Underdog World Cup show. I'm Chris Horvidell. France is officially into the World Cup semifinals. Spain and Belgium meet today for the right to join them and the tournament's biggest stars are starting to separate themselves with the trophy getting very close. This episode of the Underdog World Cup show is brought to you in part by Airbnb. More on that later. And as always, for context, we're going to mix in some numbers from Lucky Rebel Sportsbook because this is the stage of the tournament where every market starts telling a story. France beat Morocco 2-0 yesterday in Boston. And even though the goals didn't arrive until the second half, the final score probably undersells how much control France had through the whole thing. Les Bleus finished with 22 shots to Morocco's 5 and put 9 on target to Morocco's 1. France generated just under 3xG while holding Morocco to roughly 0.3. Morocco had slightly more possession, but most of it came in areas that don't really threaten France. Kylian Mbappe had an eventful afternoon. He had a first half penalty saved by Yacine Bono, but responded by scoring the opener and setting up Ousmane Dembele for the second. That moved Mbappe to 8 goals in the tournament, level with Lionel Messi in the Golden Boot race. Mbappe also has 3 assists, while Michael Alise leads the tournament with 5. The most impressive thing about France right now is they don't need to play at full speed for 90 minutes. They can spend long stretches controlling space, waiting for an opening, and then Mbappe or Dembele can turn one small mistake into a goal. Before the match, Lucky Rebel had France at minus 400 to advance and Mbappe at minus 112 to score. Both of those proved accurate, although anyone holding the Mbappe penalty marker probably experienced a few uncomfortable minutes before he made up for it later. Morocco's run ends in the quarterfinals, but reaching this stage in consecutive World Cups is still a major achievement. They were missing Ismail Sabare, and without him, they struggled to create anything centrally. Brahim Diaz was isolated up front, Ashraf Hakimi couldn't influence the game enough from wide areas, and France never really allowed the match to become chaotic. Now, France waits for the winner of today's only game, Spain vs. Belgium at 3pm Eastern from Los Angeles Stadium. Spain enters as the favorite, and the biggest reason isn't even their collection of midfielders or Lamine Yamal. It is their defense. Spain has played 5 matches in this tournament and recorded 5 clean sheets. They're trying to become the first team since the 2010 Spanish champions to go this deep into a World Cup without conceding. They've also shown they can win different kinds of games. Spain can dominate possession, but they survived a much tighter knockout match against Portugal and found the decisive goal through Mikel Moreno. Mikel Oyarzabal leads Spain with 4 tournament goals, Yamal has 1 through 5 appearances, but his ability to attract multiple defenders still creates room for Oyarzabal, Nico Williams, and the rest of this talented unit. Lucky Rebel has Spain at minus 152 to win in regulation and minus 310 to advance. Belgium is plus 420 to win in 90 minutes and plus 245 to reach the semifinals. The total is 2.5 goals with the overpriced minus 125. The total is interesting because Belgium have scored 13 goals, the second most in the tournament, and Spain haven't allowed one. So this is the tournament's hottest remaining attack against its cleanest defense. Belgium's attack has also become much more dangerous since Romello Lukaku accepted a substitute role. Lukaku has scored in three consecutive appearances off the bench and his three goals at the World Cup moved him to 8 career World Cup goals. Belgium can let defenders chase Zaramidoglu and Leandro Trissard for an hour, then introduce Lukaku against tired legs. Lucky Rebel has Lukaku at plus 255 to score today. He's also minus 300 to finish as Belgium's top scorer in the tournament. With Charles de Cetelaere next at plus 700 and Trissard at plus 800. The market reflects how efficient Lukaku has been, especially considering he hasn't needed full matches to produce. Belgium may decide this is the moment to start him, but his late game role has been working and changing it now does come with some risk. Belgium has major midfield problems going into this one. Amadou Onana is out with an ACL injury. And Zeno De Bast is also been dealing with a fitness concern. Kevin De Bruyne is expected to be available, but Belgium has carefully managed him throughout the tournament. Without Onana, Belgium has to decide how aggressively to press Spain's midfield. Press too high and Pedri and Rodri can play through you. Sit too deep and Spain can keep moving the ball until Yamal gets isolated against a fullback. One player market that sums that up nicely is Lucky Rebel having Yamal at minus 280 for three or more shots, minus 112 for four or more and plus 110 for at least two shots on target. Belgium knows where Spain wants to attack, but stopping it is a different problem altogether. There's also a few broader futures worth watching as the quarterfinals continue. France is now the Lucky Rebel tournament favorite at plus 185, followed by Spain at plus 375, Argentina at plus 400 and England at plus 475. France is also minus 110 to make the final while Spain is minus 160. The golden ball market is basically a two player race right now. Mbappe plus 165 and Messi plus 175 with Erling Haaland and Harry Kane both at plus 800. And the golden boot market is even tighter. Mbappe is plus 115, Messi plus 130, Haaland plus 700 and Kane plus 850. Which actually leads me to one of the more entertaining specials on the board. Lucky Rebel has Messi, Mbappe, Haaland and Kane at plus 500 for all four to score at least once during the latter stages. They're also minus 120 to combine for at least six additional goals and plus 250 to combine for eight. It's a fun way to look at the rest of the tournament because all four are still alive and Mbappe and Messi are already tied at the top with eight goals a piece. For today, I'm expecting Spain to control more of the ball, Belgium to defend in a compact shape and Lukaku's role to become increasingly more important if the match is still close after an hour. Spain's clean sheet streak makes them the safer pick, but Belgium has enough finishing quality that this becomes their toughest defensive test yet. My lean is Spain advancing, probably through a 2-1 win, which would set up a semifinal against France and give us one of the most talented matchups this tournament could possibly produce. And speaking of finding the right setup, I'd like to tell you a little bit about Airbnb. When you're traveling for a tournament, sometimes having a comfortable place to reset between games matters almost as much as the destination itself. Airbnb gives you plenty of options, whether you're traveling solo, with friends or bringing the whole crew. Check out Airbnb when you're planning your trip. That'll do it for today's Underdog World Cup show. I'm Chris Wardell. Enjoy Spain and Belgium. I'll talk to you tomorrow.