NFL 283

Hey, everybody, and welcome to another episode of the Underdog NFL Show. Chris Horwadel here, going it alone once again, and today we're finishing up the NFC. We've done the East, we've done the North, we've done the South. We've talked through a lot of teams that are interesting, a lot of teams that are probably better than people think, and a couple of teams where I'm still not totally sure what the plan is. Which is always fun. I love a good NFL offseason where you can look at a roster and go, all right, I understand the individual moves, but yeah, I don't know that I get the deal as a whole, and then randomly they go 12 and 5. Today we're looking at the NFC West, and as we've been doing, we're using the numbers over at Lucky Rebel Sportsbook. We're going to be looking at the division winner market, division finishing market, some NFC odds, some Super Bowl odds, and we'll get the exact order at the end. This is a fun one because the NFC West is weird. It's not weird in like an everybody's bad way. It's weird in a three teams could talk themselves into thinking they can win the NFC kind of way, and then Arizona is kind of over there in the corner saying, yeah, we're also technically in the division. Please include us in the graphic as well. And listen, we will. We're nothing if not fair here. The division odds tell the story clearly. The Los Angeles Rams are the favorites at plus 105, Seattle's plus 210, San Francisco is plus 300, and then the Cardinals are all the way down at plus 3,500. So the board is basically saying there's three teams in a real race, and then Arizona would need chaos, health, a quarterback revelation, and possibly some divine intervention. But before we get into the picks, let's go team by team. We'll start with Arizona. The Cardinals are interesting, despite everything I'm saying, because this isn't just like a run it back and hope kind of deal. It's a reset. They hired Mike LaFleur as their head coach. They brought in Nathaniel Hackett as offensive coordinator. They kept Nick Railas on defense, which I like because I don't think the defense was good last year, but I also don't think you look at that roster and ask why wasn't this team performing like the 2000 Ravens? You can only do so much, and I think he did a pretty nice job. For the biggest move, obviously, they moved on from Kyler Murray, which is the kind of thing that changes the entire temperature of a room. Whatever you think of Kyler, I've been up and down on him for years. Once you release him, you're telling everybody, okay, this is the new thing now. This is the new build. This isn't a tweak. This isn't painting the cabinets and pretending the kitchen's new. We're talking about taking a sledgehammer to the wall and hoping you don't bust open a pipe. They brought in Gardner Minshew. They already had Jacoby Bursette in the mix. It's not the world's most exciting quarterback room, but what it is is a very specific type of quarterback room. It's the kind of room where the coaching staff's basically saying, look, we need adults. We need functional football. We need to stop lighting possessions on fire. And honestly, for a team that went 3-14 last year, I don't think that's crazy. Arizona finished 3-14, 0-6 in the division. They were minus 133 in point differential. It's not one unlucky bounce kind of deal. It's the broadcasters start talking about the next game in the schedule sometime midway through the third quarter. Offensively, they actually threw for over 4,300 yards as a team, which is better than you would expect, but the running game was an absolute mess. They averaged just 93.1 rushing yards per game, and they finished with only nine rushing touchdowns. Nine! In a 17-game season. So what did they do? Well, they used the number three overall pick in the draft on Notre Dame running back Jeremiah Love. And I know. I know. Taking a running back third overall makes every analytics person's face melt like they opened the Ark of the Covenant. I get it. I'm not saying it's the optimal team-building strategy, but I also understand the logic for this specific team. They needed an identity. They needed someone who can change the way defenses line up. Love averaged over 114 rushing yards a game last year at Notre Dame and scored 18 rushing touchdowns. That's twice as many. Pretty easy math. As the Cardinals as a whole. It's immediate juice for an offense that desperately needed it. And now, all of a sudden, you're looking at an offensive core with Jeremiah Love, with Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, Zay Jones, Kendrick Bourne, Tyler Algier, and a veteran quarterback who, at minimum, should be able to get them in and out of plays without turning every series into the inevitable third and 12. They also added Isaac Sayamalu on a three-year deal, which I really like. You know, Sayamalu isn't the sexiest signing in the world, but he plays grown-up football. Let's stop getting our quarterback folded like a lawn chair football. They added Elijah Wilkerson and Matt Pryor. They brought in Roy Lopez, Andrew Billings, Jack Gibbons, Andrew Wingard, Devin DuVernay, and Casey Kreider. Again, a lot of these aren't headline moves, but that is what a bad team usually has to do. They don't just need stars. They need to raise the overall floor of this team. You need fewer snaps going to guys where, when the broadcasters put their college and height on the screen, your first reaction is, wait, who is this? In the draft after Love, they came back in the second round with Chase Basantas, the offensive lineman from Texas A&M. Good pick. Big, strong, versatile. Exactly the kind of pick that makes sense when you use the third overall pick on a running back. If you're going to do the running back thing that high, you better invest in people blocking for him. Then, in the third, Carson Beck, quarterback from Miami. And that is interesting, because now you have Brissette, Minshew, and Beck. Beck, the lottery ticket, maybe he's just a long-term backup. Maybe he's more than you think, but you take that swing in the third round if you don't have a franchise quarterback. You absolutely do, especially in a year where you're not trying to convince yourself you're one player away. In the fourth round, they go with Caleb Proctor, offensive tackle from Alabama, again, OL. Fifth round, Reggie Virgil, wide receiver, Texas Tech. Sixth round, Carson Scharrer, the linebacker from Iowa. Seventh round, Jayden Williams, offensive lineman from Indiana. So the draft was pretty clear. Running back, offensive line, quarterback, more offensive line, speed, depth, offensive line. A real plan. Now, where does that leave them? For Arizona, a lucky Rebel to finish first, they're plus 3,500, like I mentioned. Second plus 3,000, third plus 850, and fourth minus 1,600, and yeah. It's about right. No disrespect to this team, but they are the David in a division of Goliaths, and I don't think this story is going to break quite the same way. I do like some of what they did. I like love after being a little bit surprised on the day. I like the idea of trying to establish a real identity. I like keeping Rayless. I like that they didn't pretend last year was just fine, but this division is absolutely brutal, and when your quarterback options are Bursette, Minshew, and a rookie third rounder, you're probably not walking into the division with the Rams, the Seahawks, and the 49ers and saying, all right, line starts here. Could you be frisky? Yeah, absolutely. Could you be annoying? Yeah, absolutely. Could you go from three wins to six or seven and feel like a much more competent football team? Definitely. Third feels right. Fourth feels very, very right. Now let's move on to the Los Angeles Rams and the Rams, man, the Rams are doing Rams things again. There are teams that rebuild and there are teams that retool, and then there's the Rams who just look at the rest of the NFL and go, well, what if we simply add another superstar and make everybody else deal with it? The big move, the headline move, the wait, they did what move? They traded for Myles Garrett. Myles Garrett to the Rams is insane. It's insane in the way that only the Rams can make feel normal as well. You almost get desensitized to it. Like of course the Rams added Myles Garrett. Why wouldn't they? Why wouldn't they look at a team that already went 12 and five, already scored 518 points, already had a plus 172 point differential and say, you know what this team needs? The best pass rusher in football. They gave up Jared Verse and a collection of future picks to make it happen. And I get that that's expensive. Of course it's expensive. It's Myles Garrett. You're not getting him for a sixth round pick in a politely worded letter. It is also worth pointing out that at the time of recording this, it is looking more likely than not that they are going to be able to also lure Aaron Donald out of retirement. Because sure, why not? And the fact that they brought in Myles Garrett really overshadows the fact that they made another gigantic trade for another defensive superstar early in the season when they went out and they got Trent McDuffie and then they extended him. It's huge. Because if you're going to be aggressive, be aggressive in places that matter. Pass rush, coverage, quarterback, protecting the quarterback. That's where the Rams live. They also added Jalen Watson, long snapper Joe Cardona, outside linebacker Kyer Thomas, inside linebacker Grant Stewart, re-signed Laurel Murchison, and signed David Quessenberry. There are obviously a few depth moves in there, but the big picture is pretty obvious. The Rams are trying to win now, not eventually. And they just keep pushing all of their chips into the middle of the table. The crazy thing is the offense was already ridiculous. The Rams threw for 4,707 yards last year with 46 passing touchdowns against just eight interceptions. Their team passer rating was 109. They scored 65 total touchdowns. 65! That's a video game number. Except in video games I usually throw more interceptions because I'm an idiot and I think every linebacker is slow and they aren't. Matthew Stafford winning MVP last year changed the way we talk about this team, but it didn't change the reality that this roster is still being built like the windows open. Puka Nakuwa is a monster. Kyron Williams gives them balance, the line held up, and now you add an all-world defensive player and a premier cornerback to the roster. So in the draft, they did something fascinating. And I think time's going to tell whether or not their head coach was actually on board with it. They took Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson at pick 13. It's a strange pick and it's really an interesting one because if you're the Rams, you're good enough to win the Super Bowl right now, but you also know Stafford isn't going to play forever. So taking Simpson is not a like, we need him in September kind of pick. It's a, we prefer not to spend five years wandering around looking for a quarterback in purgatory after the Matt Stafford run ends pick. And if he never becomes the guy, eh, it's fine. That's the risk. Because I'd rather see a smart organization with a veteran quarterback take a swing a year early than a year too late. In the second round, they took Max Clair tight end from Ohio state. Boy, I love this pick. Good player, productive, gives them another option in the passing game. And I think he has more than he showed at Ohio state because of just how many other mouths there were to feed. Third round pick Keegan Trost, offensive tackle from Missouri, sixth round, CJ Daniels, wide receiver from Miami, seventh round, Tim Keegan, the third defensive lineman, Alabama. Not a huge draft class, but it doesn't have to be. This is a Rams team that is very much in premium acquisition mode. Ty Simpson's a future play. Max Clair can help quickly. Trost is an offensive line depth piece with developmental upside. At Lucky Rebel, the Rams are plus 105 to win the NFC West, second plus 200, third plus 300, fourth plus 3000. And that fourth place number is funny because it's technically saying, yes, anything can happen. Unless their injury report looks like a CVS receipt. I think they're probably going to be fine. The Rams are also plus 550 to win the Super Bowl at Lucky Rebel, which is the shortest number on the whole board. They're plus 310 to win the NFC, they're plus 300 to be the number one seed in the NFC. Look, I get it. There's a world where Seattle's better in the regular season. There's a world where San Francisco gets healthy at Mike Evans and, you know, punches everybody in the mouth. But the Rams' top end case is the cleanest case in the division. They have the reigning MVP, they have the explosive passing game pieces, and they added Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie. The team, and I say this as a fan of another team in the NFC, is terrifying. The risk obviously is age and health. Stafford's not 26 anymore. Myles Garrett already said that he's probably going to retire after five more years. He has a lot of Myles on him. The Rams have pushed money into the future so many times, but at some point, the future is going to show up at the door and be like, hey, remember me? But they're not worried about that today. And honestly, they shouldn't be. When you can win the whole thing, you go try to win the whole thing. I love that. Let's move on to the San Francisco 49ers. I think the 49ers are the hardest team in the division for me to get my head around because they went 12-5 last year and they still finished third. It's outrageous. 12 wins and a third place finish is the kind of thing that makes you stare at the standings and assume that somebody broke the website. But it is what happened. Seattle went 14-3, the Rams went 12-5, and the 49ers went 12-5. Also Arizona went 3-14. So San Francisco's coming off of a really good year that somehow feels like a disappointment. And in the offseason, they did some fascinating stuff. The biggest move on offense was Mike Evans' three-year deal. Mike Evans and a Kyle Shanahan offense is just a fun sentence, right? You love what this could be. It's also the kind of thing that tells you that the rest of the NFC isn't going to be allowed to take a nap. You get through Puka, you get through Seattle's receivers, you get through all of the Shanahan And now Mike Evans is just standing there being all 6'5 and birding. They also added Christian Kirk, which I like. He's a professional receiver. He knows how to get open. He can work underneath. And he'll compliment Evans and whoever else the 49ers throw out there, depending on how they deploy everybody and who's healthy. And with the 49ers, there is always a who is healthy section. It's basically part of the team constitution. They brought back Dre Greenlaw on a four-year deal. That matters. Greenlaw is one of those players where if you watch the 49ers every week, you understand his value immediately. He plays angry, he plays fast, and he fits the personality of the defense. They traded for Osa Odigizua from Dallas for a third-round pick. Good move. They signed Nate Hobbs. They signed Jack Jones. They signed Cameron Sample. They signed Robert Jones. They brought in Vardarian Lowe and Brett Toth. They re-signed Jack Tongs, Garrett Wallow, Patrick Taylor Jr., Punter, Corliss Waitman, and others. And then Bryce Huff retired, which is one of those little off-season notes that you can kind of slide past, but it matters. Pass rush depth matters, especially in this division, especially when you're chasing Stafford and whoever Seattle's rolling out there with that deep physical offense. Now, the stats tell you where San Francisco was good and where there are real concerns. Offensively, they threw for 4,318 yards and 33 touchdowns. That's good. But, they ran for only 1,817 yards at 3.8 yards per clip. For a Shanahan team, that feels wrong. Feels like they ordered a cheesesteak and they got a salad. It might be good, but it's not what they came for. Defensively, the sack number is the one that really jumps out. Only 20 sacks as a team. Six interceptions, it's also not enough. Not enough disruption for a team with real Super Bowl aspirations. So, adding Osa helps. Getting more off of the edge group is going to help, but this defense needs to create more negative plays. In the draft, they didn't have a first round pick, but they started the second round pick with the John Stribling wide receiver from Mississippi at pick 33. Very 49ers pick. They already had Evans. They already had Weapons, but they still take another receiver because apparently Kyle Shanahan believes that the illegal forward pass is basically invented just for him. Third round, Romello Height edge from Texas Tech. This one makes a ton of sense. One, I think they were surprised he was still there. They needed more pass rush juice and Height gives them a real upside swing on that. Later in the third, Keelan Black running back from Indiana again. The run game has to be better and San Francisco's never going to stop taking running backs and convincing us that this one is the guy. Fourth round pick, Grayson Halton, defensive tackle from Oklahoma. Then Carver Willis, offensive tackle from Washington. Then bear with me, I get this one wrong a lot. Ephesians Prysock, cornerback from Washington. Fifth round, Jaden Duggar, linebacker from Louisiana. Sixth round, Enrique Cruz, offensive tackle from Kansas. It's a good draft for where they were picking, but it's not flashy like the Rams adding a future quarterback or Arizona taking a running back third overall. It does, however, hit the needs. Receiver, edge, running back, D-line, O-line, corner, linebacker, more offensive line. For San Francisco, at Lucky Rebel to finish first in the NFC West, they're plus 300, second plus 180, third plus 130, fourth plus 1,500. The third place price is interesting. It's not saying they're bad, it's saying we think the Rams and the Seahawks might just be a little bit cleaner right now, and honestly, I completely get that. At Lucky Rebel, the 49ers are plus 1,500 to win the Super Bowl and plus 850 to win the NFC. They're also plus 850 to be the number one seed in the AFC. There's value there when you believe the roster is healthy, and if you believe the Mike Evans acquisition changes the ceiling, I don't think the 49ers are dead. I don't think they're even close to dead. This is still a 12-1 team from last year that got better at receiver and added defensive help, but in this division, somebody good is going to have to finish third. That's the problem. It's like musical chairs, except every musical chair has a Pro Bowl wide receiver and defensive coordinator who looks absolutely furious on television. Now let's get to the reigning champion, Seattle Seahawks. They are the reigning top dog in the NFC West, and based on last year, they have every right to be annoyed that they aren't the favorite. Seattle went 14-3, they scored 483 points and allowed 292. That is a plus 191 point differential. That is not fake. We won nine one-score games and had a punter throw for two weird touchdowns. That was real dominance. Their defense was unbelievable. They allowed just 20 passing touchdowns, picked off 18 passes, and had 47 sacks. It's winning football. That travels. That plays in January. That makes life miserable for other teams. And offensively, they ran for 2,096 yards and 19 touchdowns. This is a physical football team. It's not just a fun passing offense. This is a team that makes you uncomfortable in a lot of ways offensively. To me, their offseason was more about continuity than any sort of dramatic reinvention. They just didn't need that. They extended Jackson Smith and Jake Bowe, which was a no-brainer. He is fantastic and has become one of the central pieces of what they do. They re-signed Rashid Shahid, which I loved and I thought somebody else might swoop in, but allowing him to stay here is crazy. Also Josh Jobe, Drake Thomas, Chris Stoll, Josh Jones, Brady Russell, A.J. Finley, Chaz Surratt, Jake Bobo, Shamar Jean-Charles, Cody White, Brandon Pilley, and George Helani was tendered. That is a whole heck of a lot of, we like our guys. And when you go 14-3, that's totally fine. If you go 4-13 and your whole offense is we like our guys, that's how people get fired. But when you go 14-3, yeah, liking your guys is acceptable. It turns out winning makes continuity look a lot smarter. Who knew? They also signed Dante Fowler, which I like. He gives them another veteran pass rush piece. They signed Bobby Hart. They brought in Noah Igbenojin, Rodney Thomas II, Emmanuel Wilson, and Harrison Bryant. They also traded a conditional 2028 7th round pick to the Jets for Irvin Charles. And the draft? Oh, I loved it. Made me so happy. It was so very Seahawks. At pick 32, I can't tell you how happy this made me. They took Notre Dame running back Jedarian Price. And I know everybody wanted to compare this to Arizona taking Jeremiah Love. Love goes third, Price goes 32nd, both from Notre Dame, both dynamic backs, and it's very easy to turn that into a debate show segment, which I guess in some way is what I'm doing right now because I'm not above the content. I live in the content. But I liked this pick. I thought it was fun. Price ran a 4.50 at the combine, and he fits exactly what Seattle wants to do. This is a team that runs the ball, plays defense, and forces you to have a bad afternoon. They didn't take him as a novelty piece. They took him because they believe he can be a real part of the offense. And quite frankly, I think they have him as an undervalued player in this draft who likely would have gone a lot earlier had he had the opportunity to show more, not being behind the best running back that we've seen in a little while in Jeremiah Love. Second round pick, Bud Clark, safety from TCU. Third round, Julian Neal, cornerback from Arkansas. Fifth round, Bo Stevens, guard from Iowa. Sixth round, Emmanuel Henderson Jr., wide receiver, Kansas. Seventh round, Andre Fuller, cornerback from Toledo. Devin Eastern, nose tackle from Minnesota. Michael Dansby, cornerback from Arizona. That is a very Mike McDonald era draft. Running back, safety, cornerback, guard, wide receiver, corner, nose tackle, corner. It's physical. It's defensive. We're going to make you earn every single yard and then hand the ball to our running back who ruins your mood. The Seahawks at Lucky Rebel are plus 210 to win the NFC West to finish first, plus 210, second, plus 155, third, plus 190, fourth, plus 2000. And that second place number tells you how the boards see them. The board's not disrespecting Seattle. It just has the Rams slightly ahead. But if you're a Seahawks fan, I think you're looking at this and saying, well, we went 14 and three. We were plus 191. Our defense was nasty. We won the Super Bowl and you want me to believe we should be second? I understand that argument. At Lucky Rebel, they are plus 1200 to win the Super Bowl, plus 550 to win the NFC, plus 600 to be the NFC's number one seed. That number one seed market is interesting because Seattle's already shown it can win at that level. 14 wins isn't an accident. And if they can run the ball, rush the passer, and keep the turnover production up, they're not just a division threat. They remain a Super Bowl threat. The question is whether the Rams' high-end talent is just too much. Maybe it is, but Seattle feels like a team in the division where the public could be a little bit too comfortable sliding them into second because the Rams made the loudest move of the offseason. Loud doesn't always mean best. It often does, but not always. So a quick recap before we get out of here. The most likely exact order at Lucky Rebel is Rams first, Seattle second, 49ers third, Cardinals fourth at plus 350. And honestly, that shows you the division. Arizona is almost always fourth in the realistic combinations. The top three can be shuffled around a bunch in a lot of different ways without it sounding insane. In the NFC number one seed market at Lucky Rebel, the Rams are plus 300, Seattle plus 600, 49ers plus 850, Arizona plus 50,000. It's basically the sportsbook equivalent of like, yeah, come on, man. What are we doing here? Here's where I land. Arizona's fourth, and I don't mean that as an insult. I think they're going to be more interesting. I think Jeremiah Love gives them something. I think the offensive line investment makes sense. I think Michael LaFleur could make the offense more coherent. But in this division, with that quarterback room, fourth is probably the answer. And also, probably the ceiling. San Francisco's third, and I know that feels harsh. I really do. And maybe it does. They could win 11 games and finish third again. They could win the division if things break right, though. Mike Evans makes them more dangerous. Greenlaw coming back matters. Osa helps. But I think I'm still worried about that pass rush. And I worry about the run game being more name brand than dominant last year. After all of that, loud doesn't mean best stuff. I'm going to put Seattle second. But barely. I do love the Seahawks. I love the defense. I love the physicality. I love the fact that they went 14-3, and they still feel like they're being treated like a cute story instead of the monster that they are. If you told me Seattle wins the division, I wouldn't argue with it. I would simply nod. Yeah. Yeah, I had that all along. But I'm going Rams first. If I'm putting the final card at Lucky Rebel, I think Rams, Seahawks, 49ers, Cardinals at plus 350 is the cleanest pick. It's not the most creative. It's not the most fun, let's all get rich and buy a small island kind of pick. But it's the one that makes sense to me. The Rams have the best quarterback situation right now, the best top-end defensive addition, and maybe the highest ceiling in the entire conference. Seattle is right there. San Francisco is right there. Arizona is rebuilding. And with that, the NFC is complete. We've made it through the East, the North, the South, and the West. It's been a blast. I love doing these because you remember how much changes in an NFL offseason. Guys move, draft picks shift the way you think about teams. One trade can change an entire conference. For now, I've been Chris Orbido. This has been the Underdog NFL Show NFC West Finishing Position Special. Thanks for listening. We'll see you back here with the AFC real soon.