WCS 07 03 26

Welcome to the Underdog World Cup show from Underdog Podcasts. I'm Chris Horvidell, and every day during the tournament, we're breaking down the matches, the moments, the teams under pressure, and the games coming next. This is the Underdog World Cup show. Welcome to the Underdog World Cup show. I'm Chris Horvidell, and this episode is brought to you in part by Airbnb. More on that later. We've reached the final day of the round of 32. Three games left, three spots left in the last 16, and a lucky rebel board today that has a little bit of everything. Favorites, chaos, and some very fun player props. But first, yesterday. Spain beat Austria 3-0, and Spain are starting to look a little bit less like a good tournament team and a little bit more like the serious problem we all expected them to be. Mikel Oriazabal scored twice, Pedro Poirot added the third, and Spain still haven't conceded this tournament. Four games, four clean sheets. That's dominant football. Austria came all this way, but didn't manage to put a single shot on target, which tells you how controlled this was. Spain had the ball, moved Austria around, and when the game opened up, they punished it. Lamine Yamal didn't need to score to matter. He stretched the field, forced the tension, and made Austria defend wider than they wanted to. It's also Spain's first World Cup knockout win since 2010, which seems fake until you remember how weird the World Cups have been since then. Now they get Portugal, and yes, Spain-Portugal in the last 16 is exactly as fun as it sounds. Portugal got there by beating Croatia 2-1 in Toronto in one that was one of the craziest games of the tournament so far, it had drama everywhere. Ivan Perisic gave Croatia the lead in the 53rd minute, and for a while, it had that very familiar Croatia feel. Survive, frustrate, drag the game into deep water, and then make everyone else panic. But then Cristiano Ronaldo equalized from the penalty spot in the 68th minute, his first World Cup knockout goal, which is wild considering his career, which also made him the oldest player ever to score in a World Cup knockout match. Then Gonzalo Ramos won it in extra time with a header. Later on, it looked like Croatia had equalized, but VAR ruled it out for offsides. And that was it. They're done. Portugal moves on. For Portugal, it's a relief. For Croatia, probably the end of Luka Modric's World Cup story. And if that's it, what a ridiculous tournament career. Finals, semifinals, medals, penalty shootouts, and about 400 games where it felt like he was personally controlling the clock, Switzerland closed the day by beating Algeria 2-0 in Vancouver. Briel and Bolo scored in the 10th minute. Dan and Doi added a second just after halftime, and Switzerland won a World Cup knockout game for the first time since 1938. That is not a typo. 1938. That's pre-television-for-most-people territory. Grant Jaka controlled the middle, Switzerland stayed compact, and Marat Yakin got exactly the kind of knockout performance managers dream about. Early goal, no panic, no nonsense. For Algeria, it was frustrating. And Riyad Maurice all but confirmed that it was his final match for the national team. That gives the night a little bit extra weight, but Switzerland move on and they get either Colombia or Ghana. Now to today, and the first game is Australia against Egypt at 2 o'clock Eastern time. This is the tightest match on the board. Lucky Rebel has Egypt at plus 145 to win, Australia at plus 235 and to draw at plus 190, Egypt are also minus 141 to advance, so the market is saying Egypt are the better side, but not by a ton. It feels about right to me. Egypt have Mo Salah and Omar Marmouche, and that gives them the higher end attacking talent. Salah is plus 245 anytime scorer, but that more interesting Lucky Rebel number is his shots prop, three plus shots at plus 105 in a knockout game where Egypt may lean on him constantly. It's a very logical way to think about his impact, even if he doesn't score. Australia's path is set pieces, physicality, and making this uncomfortable. Harry Suter is always a threat in the air. Jackson Irvine gives them energy in the midfield. And Nistori Irunkandu is the wild card. Lucky Rebel has Irunkandu at plus 340 as an anytime scorer, but I'd be more interested in the idea of him just getting attempts off because Australia needs somebody who can change the speed of this game. If Egypt score first, Australia have to chase, and that's dangerous. If Australia get this thing to halftime level, the pressure is going to shift hard onto Egypt. At six o'clock, Argentina face Cape Verde in Miami. This one appears to be the biggest mismatch of the day on paper. Lucky Rebel has Argentina minus 625 to win, minus 2000 to advance with Cape Verde plus 1700 to win and plus 900 to advance. That's a very polite way of saying, congratulations, Cape Verde, your magical run has earned you Lionel Messi. And Argentina have been ruthless so far. Group winners, controlled games, and Messi already sitting on six goals this tournament. He's minus 168 as an anytime scorer today, which is a pretty aggressive number, but the fun prop is Messi five plus shots at plus 110. Cape Verde are almost certainly going to defend deep. Argentina are almost certainly going to have the ball forever. And Messi is going to be right around the box all night. Julian Alvarez and Latauro Martinez are both even money anytime scorers, and both are listed at plus four shots at minus 117. So Lucky Rebel is basically telling you Argentina's forwards are expected to live in the final third today. But Cape Verde deserve more than a pat on the head here. They got through the group without winning a game, which seems strange until you remember they also didn't lose. Three draws, second place, history made. Vazinha has been huge in goal. Ryan Mendez gives them leadership. Zovany Cabral has been one of the few players who can turn a clearance into an actual attack for them. Cape Verde's goal is simple. Survive the first 20 minutes. Keep the stadium from turning into an Argentina party. Make one counter matter. Argentina's goal is even simpler. Don't make this weird. Keep it simple. Then at 930, Colombia face Ghana, and this one is sneaky good. Colombia are minus 190 to win and minus 500 to advance at Lucky Rebel, while Ghana are plus 600 to win and plus 340 to advance. Colombia deserve to be favored. They won their group. They drew Portugal 0-0 while taking 24 shots, and they've looked organized under Nestor Lorenzo. Luis Diaz is the headline, and he's plus 180 as an anytime scorer. But again, the prop I like as a conversion point here is volume. Diaz, four plus shots is minus 106. Colombia want to attack through him, isolate him, and let him keep doing his thing. James Rodriguez is three plus shots at plus 110, and that's another fun one because, you know, he's not the same player he was in 2014, but he still has that left foot, and he still sees passes other people don't. If Ghana sit deep, James may get the kind of pockets where he can either shoot or slip the final ball in. Having said all that, Ghana aren't just a free pass here. They got through a tough group with four points. They're athletic, and Antoine Semenyo gives them a direct outlet. Lucky Rebel has Semenyo at two plus shots at minus 106, which makes sense because if Ghana are chasing or countering, he's probably the one ending possessions. The question is whether Ghana can keep this from becoming Colombia pressure for 90 minutes. If they can get Jordan Ayo and Mohamed Kudu's facing forward, they've got a chance. If Colombia pin them back, it's going to start looking like a long night. And that's where we'll leave soccer today. Colombia and Ghana closing the round of 32 with one team trying to turn pressure into a deeper run, while the others trying to make the whole bracket uncomfortable. Which brings us back to Airbnb, because a knockout tournament has a funny way of changing travel plans. You think you're going home, then your team wins, and you're suddenly figuring out how to stay one more night in a city you didn't expect to love. Airbnb can make that kind of trip feel a little more local, a little more memorable, and a lot less like you're just passing through. Check out Airbnb for all your summer travel. That's it for today's Underdog World Cup show. I'm Chris Horvidell. Enjoy the games. UNDERDOG WORLD CUP UNITED STATES OF AMERICA