Underdog World Cup Show 06 21 26

Welcome to the Underdog World Cup show from Underdog Podcasts. I'm Chris Horvidell, and every day during the tournament, we're breaking down the matches, the moments, the teams under pressure, and the games coming next. This is the Underdog World Cup show. Hey, I'm Chris Horvidell, and this is the Underdog World Cup show. Today, we've got a really fun one because yesterday gave us blowouts, a goalie doing superhero-type things, Germany remembering it's Germany, and Japan turning a landmark World Cup match into a statement game. This episode of the Underdog World Cup show is brought to you in part by Airbnb. A little more on that later on. And we'll get into today's games too, because Spain-Saudi Arabia is suddenly a lot more interesting than it looked a week ago. The lucky rebel odds have Spain as massive favorites at minus 1,100 with Saudi Arabia at plus 2,500 in the draw at plus 950, which tells you how big the gap is supposed to be. But after Spain just went 90 minutes without scoring against Cape Verde, there's a little bit of, yeah, but show me baked into this one. Let's start with yesterday and we'll start with the Netherlands just absolutely hammering Sweden 5-1. This was the kind of game where if you only saw Sweden beat Tunisia 5-1 in the opener, you would have talked yourself into Sweden being a dark horse for about six days. And then Brian Broby scored twice in the first 17 minutes, Cody Gapko added two more after halftime, and Chrysencio Somerville finished it off late. Antoniolonga did get one back for Sweden, but this was a Dutch response game in every sense. They drew Japan 2-2 to start the tournament and there were real questions about whether they were going to be a little too loose, a little too open, and a little too, we look amazing until somebody runs straight through us. But then they did the thing that Netherlands do every few tournaments where you go, oh right, they have a ton of talent. And when the frontline clicks, this gets very uncomfortable, very quick. For Sweden, it's weird because they've scored six goals in two games and somehow probably feel like they've been punched in the face. Now their final game against Japan becomes huge. You beat Tunisia 5-1, you lose to the Netherlands 5-1, and now your tournament's basically sitting there asking, so which version of you is for real? Honestly, rude question, but fair. Then Germany beat Ivory Coast 2-1 and this was fascinating because Germany actually had to work for it. Ivory Coast went ahead through Francaisia after Ahmad Diallo helped create the chance and Germany had two first half goals wiped out for fouls in the buildup. So at halftime, it was that classic tournament feel where the favorite has had the ball, had the chances, had the complaints, and none of it matters because they're still losing. And then Denis Zundov came off the bench and changed the whole thing. He equalized in the 68th minute, then scored again in stoppage time and Germany won 2-1. That matters because Germany are now on six points and officially through to the knockouts and for a program with Germany's history saying they're in the knockouts for the first time since winning in 2014 is insane. But that's where they were after the last two World Cups. This wasn't clean, but it was very tournament Germany. Survive the uncomfortable part, trust the bench, find the winner and move on. Ivory Coast are still very much alive, but that was a missed chance to basically announce themselves as a second round team. And against Germany, if you leave the door open, Germany do not just politely close it for you. They walk in, take your snacks and ask why you're so upset. Then we got Ecuador 0, Curaçao 0. And I know 0-0 doesn't sound like appointment television, but this was one of the stories of the tournament. Eloy Ram made 15 saves for Curaçao. 15. That's not a goalkeeper stat. That's a cry for help from the rest of the team. Ecuador had 28 shots, 15 on target, a ton of pressure. Enter Valencia, chances, corners, possession, all of it. And Curaçao still walked out with the first World Cup point in the country's history. That's amazing. And that's the beauty of this expanded tournament when it works. Curaçao are the smallest nation to ever play in the World Cup. They got beat 7-1 by Germany in the opener. And then a week later, their 37-year-old goalkeeper turns into prime Buffon. For Ecuador, it's brutal. They lost 1-0 to Ivory Coast. Now they draw Curaçao and they're sitting on one point after two games when this group was supposed to be very manageable. The final match against Germany now feels less like a chance and more like a problem. And then Japan beat Tunisia 4-0 in the 1,000th match in men's World Cup history. Pretty good time to make a statement. Daiichi Kamada scored early. Aise Oeda was excellent and scored twice. Junya Ito added the third. Japan were sharp, organized, quick, and pretty ruthless. Tunisia, on the other hand, are now out after losing 5-1 to Sweden and 4-0 to Japan, which is not exactly the response you wanted after changing managers mid-tournament. Hervé Brunard came in after the opener and look, he's done real stuff in international football. He's won AFCON. He had the Saudi Arabia win over Argentina in 2022. The white shirt has the whole mythology around it, but three days is three days. You can't install defensive structure, confidence, and midfield in three days. I can't even consistently respond to a text in three days. Japan, though, they looked real. They drew the Netherlands, they buried Tunisia, and now the Japan-Sweden finale is going to be outstanding. Now let's get into today because the noon game is Spain against Saudi Arabia in Atlanta, and Spain need this. Spain drew Cape Verde 0-0 in the opener despite creating chances, and the big question is whether Laminia Mall and Nico Williams are ready for more. Luis de la Fuente didn't get enough directness in the first match, and Cape Verde basically gave everybody else the blueprint. Stay compact, protect the middle, make Spain prove they can hurt you. Saudi Arabia under Giorgio Denis will absolutely try to make this ugly. And honestly, why wouldn't they? They drew Uruguay 1-1. They've already shown they can sit in, survive pressure, and make a favorite feel uncomfortable. The lucky Rebel odds have Laminia Mall as minus 106 as an anytime scorer, and Spain over two and a half team goals at minus 140, so the market is expecting Spain to finally open up. I get that, but the more interesting number to me is Saudi Arabia plus 2.5 at minus 122. That tells you the expectation is Spain wins, but the question is whether it's smooth or whether it turns into another, why is this still 0-0 after 37 minutes kind of game. At three, it's Belgium, Iran, and Los Angeles. Belgium drew Egypt 1-1, and Roberto Garcia is managing Romello Lococo carefully, which is smart because Lococo is still their cleanest penalty box answer. The lucky Rebel odds have Lococo at minus 106 to score anytime, and Kevin De Bruyne at plus 215, which is interesting because Belgium may need one of their stars to make this less complicated. Iran drew New Zealand 2-2, and now they come into this with this weird, difficult setup. Amir Ghalanoi has talked about travel and preparation issues, with Iran based in Tijuana and having to cross for games because of US restrictions. That isn't the ideal way to prep for Belgium, but emotionally, tactically, and competitively, Iran are not going to make this easy. Belgium are minus 240, Iran plus 650, and the draw is plus 365 on Lucky Rebel. It feels about right, but Belgium have to be sharper than they were against Egypt because Iran already showed against New Zealand that they can get hit and keep coming. At six, Uruguay get Cape Verde and Miami, and this might be my favorite game of the day from a pure tournament weirdness perspective. Uruguay should be better. Darwin Nunez, Francisco Valverde, and Jurgen Dijk, Araskaidija, that's too much quality for them to be as flat as they were against Saudi Arabia. But Cape Verde are not just here for the souvenir lanyard, but Bista had them incredibly organized against Spain. Vozenha was sensational in goal, and now they have a point against one of the tournament's favorites. There's real belief there. Uruguay are minus 230 on Lucky Rebel, Cape Verde plus 725, and the draw is plus 320. Darwin is plus 170 to score any time, but I actually think the more interesting thing is Cape Verde over 0.5 goals at plus 117, because if Cape Verde can't find one, Uruguay are going to suddenly get in a real fight. Then the nightcap is New Zealand against Egypt and Vancouver. This is a sneaky big one because neither country has ever won a World Cup match, New Zealand drew Iran 2-2, Egypt drew Belgium 1-1, and now both of them are looking at this game like there are three points here, and those three points might change our entire tournament. For Egypt, Hossam Hassam has pushed back on any talk of issues with Mo Salah, and the reality is simple. Salah and Omar Marmouch give Egypt the kind of counterattacking punch that can decide a game in three seconds. For New Zealand, it still all revolves around Chris Wood. He gives them a way to get up the field. He makes center backs actually defend long balls, and he turns messy possessions into something useful. Egypt are minus 170 on Lucky Rebel, New Zealand are plus 435, and Salah plus 120 to score any time. Chris Wood plus 300 is the New Zealand number that makes sense to me, because if they're going to pull this off, it probably involves him bullying somebody at the back post. Before we get out of here, a quick word about Airbnb. If you're traveling for the World Cup, hosting friends for a match day weekend, or just trying to make a trip feel a little bit less like living out of a suitcase, Airbnb gives you options to feel more personal than the standard hotel routine. Whether it's a spot near the stadium or a place big enough for the whole crew, Airbnb can make the travel part of the tournament a lot easier. That's it for today's show. Enjoy the games and we'll talk tomorrow. See you then.