The Underdog Football Show 06 20 26

The Underdog Football Show Big transfers, big news Hey, hey, oh Every rumor Every move The Underdog Football Show Every league, every goal Hey, hey, oh Every story To be told The Underdog Football Show Hey, I'm Chris Horwood, and welcome to The Underdog Football Show, your weekly look at the biggest football transfers, the smartest rumors, the stories that actually matter, and the numbers behind all of it. This week, the transfer market gave us a strong mix. Liverpool added a young Spanish attacker. West Brom takes a swing on a Chelsea Academy forward. Porto doing very Porto business with Arsenal, and major women's football movement, including Mary Erb's, Ali Centaur, and Lea Cordina. We also have World Cup news, climate pressure around FIFA, a great father-son stadium story from the U.S., and one of the most unbelievable social media rises of the tournament, along with a rumor mill that is Manchester City, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, and several other major names all circling the same expensive end of the market. And because we're in a World Cup summer, we're also going to tie in some of the lucky rebel odds throughout the show. Not just outright winners, but props, player markets, continent markets, golden ball assists, and a few other interesting angles. Let's get started with the confirmed moves. First up, Victor Munoz is now officially a Liverpool player, and this is a very Liverpool kind of signing. He's fast, flexible, young, and suddenly a lot more expensive than he was a year ago. Liverpool signed the 22-year-old Spain forward from Asa Suna on a long-term deal reportedly worth around 40 million euros. And moving quickly, while he was with Spain's World Cup squad in the United States, he completed his medical at Spain's base in Tennessee, which is a very modern transfer window detail. One minute you're preparing for the World Cup, the next minute you're becoming part of Liverpool's new attack plan. The numbers are interesting. But Mob has Munoz down for six goals, two assists, and 2,668 La Liga minutes, along with a 6.9 average rating and 25-26. Some reports have the total in all competitions slightly higher, around seven goals and five assists, depending on what's being counted. But the bigger point is the profile. He was one of Asa Suna's breakout players. He has real pace. He can play across the front line, and he already made his Spain debut earlier in the year. The context here is also fun. He came through both the Barcelona and Real Madrid youth structures, moved to Asa Suna, broke through in just one season, and now goes to Liverpool as the first major attacking piece under Andoni Iraola. That is a big career arc in a short amount of time. Spanish academy, prospect, Asa Suna breakout, now the new Liverpool signing. And it matters because Liverpool's not just buying output, they're buying traits, pace, pressing, versatility, and the ability to play in a front line that wants to attack space quickly. It's the kind of signing that may not dominate the headlines like a superstar move, but could make a lot of tactical sense once this season starts. It also connects nicely to Spain's broader World Cup profile. Spain are one of the major contenders this summer, and lucky rebel odds currently have Spain at plus 600 to win the 2026 World Cup, level with England just behind France. That gives you some useful context. Munoz is trying to break into a national team environment where the expectations aren't nice tournament, they're let's go win the thing. Next up, we've got Jimmy J. Morgan off to West Brom. West Bromwich Albion signed the 20-year-old forward from Chelsea on a four-year contract with reports putting the fee somewhere around $4 million plus a sell-on clause. Jimmy J. might not be one of the biggest names on the board, but this might prove to be one of the smartest England-based signings of the week. Morgan spent last season on loan at Petersburg United in League One, and foot mob had him at 12 goals, three assists in 2,365 minutes, and a 7.08 average rating. Other reports put his goal total around 14 in 39 total appearances, depending on competitions counted. But either way, the headline is the same. He produced real senior football numbers as a young attacker. That is exactly the type of signing the championship club should be making. West Brom narrowly avoided relegation last season, so they need energy, resale value, and goals. Morgan gives them all three. He has Chelsea academy polish, Southampton academy background, and now a full season of proper League One production. The Chelsea angle's interesting too. Morgan was talented enough to come through in the elite academy environment, productive enough to get a championship move, but never quite close enough to Chelsea's first team to make the pathway feel realistic. For West Brom, this is the opportunity. Buy the player before the Premier League tax fully attaches. And for England, the depth of attacking talent is absurd right now. Even at the senior level, the World Cup odds board show how strong England's attacking expectations are. Lucky Rebel odds list England at plus 350 to be the highest scoring team at the 2026 World Cup, behind only Germany at plus 250, and tied with France. It doesn't directly make Morgan an English story today, but it shows the environment young English attackers are trying to climb into. The bar is so extraordinarily high right now. Third up, Jakub Kivijor is headed from Arsenal to Porto. The Premier League transfer ledger has had the move listed around 19 million pounds, and it feels like exactly the kind of deal Porto would like to make. Kivijor is 26, left-footed, experienced, and coming off of a very strong season in Portugal. Footmob lists his 2526 Liga Portugal campaign as 2,217 minutes, one assist, three yellow cards, and a 7.42 average rating. Outstanding. For a center back, that's not a decent depth piece territory. That's quietly one of the better defenders in the league territory. For Arsenal, it's a tidy squad management. They move on from a player who is probably not going to be central to the project. For Porto, it's a classic high floor, high resale signing. Get a player with Premier League pedigree, Champions League level traits, and a left-footed center back profile that always has market value. That also matters because the Portuguese market has become one of the smartest ecosystems in football. Porto, Benfica, and Sporting know how to turn strong recruiting into competitive teams in future sales. Kivijor isn't a teenager. This is not like a pure wonder kid model, but he's still young enough to be valuable and experienced enough to help immediately. Now we move on to the women's side, where the biggest goalkeeper move of the week is a statement. Mary Earps is back to England. London City Lionesses signed the former England goalkeeper on a two-year deal beginning July 1st after her PSG contract expires. This is a massive statement signing from London City who are trying to turn themselves from a fun WSL story into a serious, ambitious product. And this, boy, this does that in a big way. Earps spent two years in France after five seasons at Manchester United where she made 102 appearances, kept 45 clean sheets, helped United reach the Champions League, and won the 2024 Women's FA Cup. Statistically, this is still an outstanding goalkeeper. FootMob had Earps at a 6.89 average rating for the 2025-26 season with 38 saves, a 67.9% save rate, 18 goals conceded, and 12 clean sheets. PSG finished third in the French top flight and she made 19 league appearances, conceding 18 and keeping 9 clean sheets in league play. This matters because London City finished sixth in their first WSL season and this move says they're not just happy to be there, they're adding a star, a leader, and a player with name recognition. Earps is 33, but goalkeepers age differently. For London City, it's less short-term signing and more We're Here proclamation. Next up, Ali Setnar is headed to Angel City. Kansas City Current traded the 22-year-old USWNT attacker to Angel City for $850,000 in extra intra-league transfer funds, making this one of the biggest player money moves in NWSL history. Setnar was the number one overall pick in the 2024 NWSL draft, originally by Utah, and now she lands in Los Angeles as a centerpiece level talent. For Kansas City, Setnar started all 12 regular season games, logged 970 minutes, and put up two goals and two assists. Foot Mob had her at a 7.14 average rating, including recent match ratings of 7.9, 7.6, 7.3, and 8.0 in a strong May stretch. This is a fascinating one because it's both a soccer move and a market move. NWSL teams are increasingly willing to attach real money to young domestic stars, and Setnar is exactly the profile teams pay for. Young, American, attacking, national team adjacent, and already productive. Angel City gets a forward who can help now and still has room to grow. Kansas City gets major financial return, but also opens itself to the obvious question, why move a 22-year-old attacker who's already starting every week? I guess they have a plan, and I guess we're gonna find out. Now let's talk about the big one. Lea Codina leaves Arsenal for West Ham. West Ham signed the Spain defender on a three-year deal after her Arsenal contract expired. Codina is a World Cup winner with Spain, a Champions League winner with Arsenal, and made 60 appearances for the Gunners, including 27 in the WSL. This is a classic bigger-than-the-fee signing because, well, the fee's free, but the resume is not. Codina has played in elite environments, won the biggest trophies, and gives West Ham exactly what mid-table teams are always desperate for, structure, standards, and somebody who's been in rooms where winning is expected. SofaScore had her most recent match listed at 6.8 in Arsenal's 3-1 win over Liverpool, and stylistically she profiles as an aggressive center-back who can lead the line and play through pressure. Now, on to the news. In the biggest pure football result from Friday, the U.S. men's national team beat Australia 2-0 in Seattle and clinched a place in the round of 32 at the 2026 World Cup. It matters not just because the U.S. advanced, but because this World Cup is on home soil, the pressure is real, and every knockout round step becomes part sporting event, part national referendum, and part long-running debate about where American soccer actually stands. The key here is that the U.S. handled the job. At a home World Cup, you don't get extra credit for making life dramatic. You win, you advance, you keep the country engaged, you keep building belief. The market reflects that as the U.S. is not seen as a true favorite, but is being respected. Lucky Rebel odds have the USA at plus 3,000 to win the World Cup, plus 125 to reach the quarterfinal, plus 110 to finish as the top CONCACAF team, and the CONCACAF angle is worth watching because Mexico and Canada are not far away from that regional market. Lucky Rebel lists Mexico at plus 130 and Canada at plus 450 for top CONCACAF team, which means the U.S. might be the slight favorite regionally, but not enough to treat it as it's settled. And there was also one individual U.S. story from that game that is just too good to skip. Alex Freeman scored for the United States in Seattle in the same stadium where his dad, Antonio Freeman, once had his breakout game for the Green Bay Packers. Antonio Freeman caught seven passes for 108 yards and two touchdowns in a Packers win over Seattle back in his NFL days. Now, years later, his son scores a World Cup goal for the U.S. in the same stadium. That is a legitimately great sports family moment. His father played football. Alex also plays football, just the global version. And the best part of this is it's not just a nice trivia note. Freeman's goal helped the U.S. beat Australia 2-0 and clinch a place in the knockout round. So you have the personal story, the stadium connection, the father-son sports legacy, and the actual World Cup stakes all landing at once. It's the kind of thing that makes the tournament feel bigger than a box score. From the U.S. perspective, it also adds another layer to the youth movement. Freeman's 21 already turned in a massive game and now has a World Cup moment that people are going to remember forever. The second major story is off the field, but still an important one. Climate activists, including former and current professional athletes, called on FIFA to cut ties with Aramco, with protests planned around World Cup venues. FIFA defended the sponsorship, saying revenue is reinvested into football, while critics continue to argue that the oil and gas sponsorship creates an obvious climate credibility problem for a tournament already dealing with the heat and scheduling concerns. This is in the modern football ecosystem, and one story of the most global sporting event in the world, enormous commercial money, climate pressure, athlete activism, and FIFA trying to balance business with public scrutiny. It's not a new tension, but it definitely becomes louder during a World Cup. And while we're talking about the bigger tournament picture, lucky rebel odds have Europe at minus 300 to be the winning continent. South America at plus 330, and the rest of the world at plus 575. It's a strong reminder that despite the global growth of the sport, the market still views Europe as the center of gravity for the likely champion. Let's turn to the rumor mill. First up, Elliot Anderson to Manchester City. This one has been talked about forever. Elliot Anderson's being linked for a major move from Nottingham Forest to City. Reports around Friday had City pushing hard with figures well over a hundred million pounds being discussed. I've seen them as high as 130 million that Forest is allegedly asking for in the move. Anderson's interested. The rumor is wild until you look at the profile. Anderson had four goals, four assists in 3,334 minutes, and a 7.51-foot mob average rating in the Premier League last season. SofaScore's season profile on him was off-putting, but he's still on a roll. Anderson also brings strong all-around defense and progressive numbers, interceptions, key passes, successful dribbles, and tackles. That is a very City-like player. He can run, receive, duel, carry, press, and play multiple midfield positions. The hesitance is the fee. Once you get into your British record territory, you're not just buying the player, but the player becomes inevitable. Anderson is very, very good. Is he solve Manchester City's midfield transition at almost any price good? That's the debate. The World Cup angle's interesting too. Anderson's now high enough profile to show up in individual tournament markets. Lucky Rebel actually list Anderson at plus 6,600 for the Golden Ball and plus 6,600 for most assists at the 2026 World Cup. Those are long numbers, obviously. But they also show how quickly his reputation has moved. A year ago, that conversation would have sounded extreme. Now, at least he's on the board. The second thing we want to look at is the Michael Alise and the Real Madrid-Manchester City megaclub watch. Bayern Munich didn't want to sell him, but reports continue to connect Real Madrid and City with interest and some speculation around truly massive numbers. Bayern-focused reporting framed it pretty clearly. He's not for sale in any normal sense, but if football superclubs start throwing around absurd money, things are going to get uncomfortable. And the reason is simple. Alise was ridiculous. Footmob had him at 15 goals, 19 assists in 2,317 minutes with an 8.09 average score for the 2025-2026 season. He's one of those players where the eye test and the data match. He's creative, productive, left-footed, slippery, and he's still only 24. Bayern's public position should be simple. No. But in football, no often means, well, we haven't seen the right number yet. His World Cup market is also treating him like an absolute star. Lucky Rebel has Michael Alise at plus 600 to win the Golden Ball, second only to Kylian Mbappe at plus 550, and also plus 800 to record the most assists. That market is a big deal. It means Alise is not just being priced as a good player on a good team, he's being priced as one of the potentially defining players of this tournament. The third rumor kind of storyline that we have kicking around today, Bayern's shopping list may not be done depending on who you believe. Reports around Friday of Bayern working towards a deal for Ismail Sabari from PSV and Nathaniel Brown from Eintracht Frankfurt with a disagreement over whether those moves would end Bayern's summer business or simply be the next stage. Sabari is really the fun one. He had 15 goals, 8 assists in 2,145 minutes and a 7.90 average score for PSV last year. Brown, meanwhile, posted 4 goals, 4 assists in 2,657 minutes and a 7.11 foot mob average rating from the fullback position. For Bayern, this is about layers. Alise is the superstar they want to keep. Brown's the young fullback profile that every elite club wants. Athletic, productive, and not yet priced like he personally invented overlapping runs. Sabari also has a really interesting World Cup betting angle. Lucky Rebel odds list him at plus 5,000 to be the top goalscorer and Morocco at minus 110 to finish as the top African team. It tells you two things. 1. Morocco are being taken seriously as the leading African side and 2. Sabari has enough attacking upside to be more than just a supporting name. And for Brown, the odds board has a fun wrinkle too. Lucky Rebel lists Nathaniel Brown at plus 5,000 for most assists and plus 10,000 for top goalscorer. The goalscorer number is obviously a long shot for a fullback but the assist market is more interesting. If Germany were to go deep and Brown has a real role wide service and setup play can matter really fast. Let's talk a little bit about the bigger World Cup context. Before we wrap, it's worth zooming in on the World Cup because the transfer market and the tournament are feeding each other right now. Clubs are signing players while national teams are playing. Players are increasing their value in real time. A good match can shift perception. A bad match can make a club hesitate. A strong tournament can turn a 35 million player into a 60 million player almost overnight. They have the best combination of depth, athleticism, tournament experience and elite individual talent. Lucky Rebel odds have France at plus 375 to win the World Cup and Kylian Mbappé, Harry Kane, and Lionel Messi all tied at plus 300 for top goalscorer. The top goalscorer market is fascinating because it blends three very different narratives. Mbappé is the prime age tournament destroyer Kane as England's finishing machine Mbappé is the legend still chasing one more huge moment and he already got one with the hat trick in the first round. He's still really, really good. England are right behind the top group with their tournament expectations being enormous. Spain are right there too. Argentina are still dangerous. Portugal and Brazil sit in the next range where the talent's obvious but the questions are about cohesion, balance, and whether the big names all peak together. It's kind of a fun chaos market. Lucky Rebel odds have any team to win two or more penalty shootouts at plus 200 while England are plus 335 to be eliminated by a penalty shootout. That's both kind of a betting market and basically a national trauma trigger. England may be a serious contender but penalty shootouts will always come with a little extra emotional baggage. And one more World Cup story worth folding in Cape Verde goalkeeper Vazinha has become one of the viral stars of the tournament. After his seven save clean sheet against Spain his Instagram following exploded. Early reports had him jumping from roughly 50,000 followers to more than 13 million almost overnight and by the time of this recording he has reportedly passed 18 million followers. It's an incredible shift for a 40 year old goalkeeper who came into the tournament as a great national team story and suddenly became one of the most followed athletes at the World Cup. And it's not just social media fluff. Cape Verde held Spain to a 0-0 draw in their first ever World Cup match. Vazinha was the face of the result and then the story became even more emotional when his mother was able to travel to the United States to see him during the tournament after some initial troubles. For Cape Verde this is already historic. For Vazinha personally it's a life changing week and for the tournament it's a reminder that the World Cup can still create overnight global stars in the most unexpected of places. It also gives a little extra context to one of the most interesting underdog markets. Lucky Rebel have Cape Verde at plus 750 to reach the round of 16 plus 3000 to reach the quarterfinals. Those are still long numbers but after taking a point off Spain with Vazinha playing like that they suddenly feel a lot less imaginary than they did before the tournament started. So that is the board. Victor Munoz gives Liverpool a fast flexible attacking piece. Jimmy J. Morgan gives West Brom a young goal scorer with upside. Jacob Cavour gives Porto a left footed center back with strong performance data behind it. Mary Earps gives London City a face of the project goalkeeper. Chris Centenor gives Angel City a young US star and gives the NWSL another major money headline. While Leah Kadena gives West Ham a World Cup winning defender for no transfer fee. The US moves on at the World Cup. Alex Freeman gives the tournament a great father son stadium story. FIFA faces major climate pressure. Vazinha and Cape Verde remind everybody that the World Cup can still create global stars out of nowhere. Man City is linked with Elliot Anderson for a major fee. Alise remains the player every super club would love to test Bayern for and Munich they might not be done adding layers. That is the underdog football show for this week. Transfers move fast. The World Cup moves careers and in this part of the calendar every signing rumor and performance feels like it might be connected to the next one. I'm Chris Horvidell. Thanks for listening. We'll see you next week.